20個理由全球債務計時炸彈快爆炸

20個理由全球債務計時炸彈快爆炸
20 reasons Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon
述評：那一扳機將點着大蕭條 II？
Commentary: Which trigger will ignite the Great Depression II?

Feb. 2, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EST
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Retire? You can fuggetaboutit if the new Global Debt Time Bomb is detonated by any one of 20 made-in-America trigger mechanisms.

Yes, 20. And yes, any one can destroy your retirement because all 20 are inexorably linked, a house-of-cards, a circular firing squad destined to self-destruct, triggering the third great Wall Street meltdown of the 21st century, igniting the Great Depression II that George W. Bush, Ben Bernanke, Henry Paulson and now President Obama have simply delayed with their endless knee-jerk, debt-laden wars, stimulus bonanzas and bailouts.

Wow, what an epic Hollywood blockbuster this will make: You know the drama, can't miss the warnings. The financial press is flooding us with plot lines ... a Forbes cover story focuses on a "Global Debt Bomb: How It Could Wreck Your Life" ... Leaders at the World Economic Forum on Swiss Mt. Davos fear another global meltdown will trigger mass rebellions ... The Economist calls the plot a "Global Asset Bubble," with cheap money fast driving up asset prices.

Plus, Bloomberg BusinessWeek is adding jet fuel to the ticking time-bomb in: "After the Stimulus Binge, a Debt Hangover: Trillions of dollars have been spent keeping the global economy afloat. But now fears about the Great Recession are giving way to worries about something else: The Great Reckoning" when massive debts come due. Then the debt bomb explodes "and the results won't be pretty for investors or elected officials."

Forbes discovered the trigger mechanism in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," by economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff: The "90% ratio of government debt to GDP is a tipping point in economic growth." For 800 years "you increase it over and beyond a high threshold, and boom!" Well guess what? "The U.S. government-debt-to-GDP ratio is 84%." Soon, Ka-Booom! Depression. Kiss your retirement goodbye.

Who knows? Forbes? Bloomberg BusinessWeek? The Economist? Davos-World Economic Forum? True, they're all looking at the same plot line for a Hollywood blockbuster about the "Global Debt Time Bomb."

But the financial press navigates in a fog. There's not just one, but many triggers, all linked in a lethal network. We've reported on it for years. Now you tell us: What triggers this firestorm?

調查：20項大規模殺傷性經濟武器 引爆全球債務計時炸彈
Poll: 20 economic weapons of mass destruction triggering ticking Global Debt Time Bomb

1. 聯邦預算赤字炸彈 Federal Budget Deficit Bomb. The Bush/Cheney wars pushed America deep into a debt hole. Federal debt limit was just raised almost 100% with Obama's 2010 budget, to $14.3 trillion vs. $7.8 trillion in 2005. The Congressional Budget Office predicts future deficits around 4% through 2020. Get it? America's debt at 84% of GDP will soon pass that toxic 90% trigger point.

2. 美國外貿炸彈 U.S. Foreign Trade Bomb. Monthly deficits actually dropped from $50 billion per month to roughly $35 billion. But the total continues climbing as $400 billion is added each year. Foreigners now own $2.5 trillion of America, with China holding over $1.3 trillion in Treasury debt.

3. 疲弱美元作為外匯儲備炸彈 Weakening U.S. Dollar as Foreign Reserve Currency Bomb. Fear China and other currencies will replace dollar as main foreign reserves. The dollar's fallen: The main index measuring dollar strength has gone from 120 at the Clinton-to-Bush handoff to below 80 today.

4. 平價銀彈：信用評級下降，利率升高 Cheap Money Bomb: Credit Ratings Down, Rates Up. Economists at S&P, Fitch and Moody's were totally co-conspirators of Fat Cat Bankers, misleading investors before meltdown: Soon, debt up, ratings down, interest rates soar.

5. 全球房地產炸彈 Global Real Estate Bomb. Dubai Tower, new "world's tallest building" is empty. BusinessWeek warns that China's housing collapse could be worse than America's. Plus the U.S. commercial real estate bubble is now $1.7 trillion, a "ticking time bomb" bloating 25% of bank balance sheets.

6. 石油與人口峰值炸彈 Peak Oil and the Population Bomb. China and India each need 500 new cities. The United Nations estimates world population exploding 50% from 6 billion to 9 billion by 2050: Three billion more humans demanding more automobiles, exhausting more resources to feed their version of the gas-guzzling "America Dream."

7. 社會保障炸彈 Social Security Bomb. We have no choice; eventually we must either cut benefits or raise taxes. Politicians hate both, so they'll do nothing. Delays worsen solutions. Without action, by 2035 Social Security and Medicare benefits will eat up the entire federal budget other than defense.

8. 醫療保險：核彈 Medicare: A Nuclear Bomb. Going broke faster than Social Security. Prescription drug benefit added an unfunded $8.1 trillion. In 5 years estimates rose from about $35 trillion to over $60 trillion now.

9. 保健保險炸彈 Health-care Insurance Bomb. Burden increasingly shifted to employees. Costs rising faster than inflation. Recent Obamacare plan would have cost $90 billion annually, paid to Big Pharma and insurers.

10. 州和地方政府的財政預算案炸彈 State and Local Government Budget Bombs. Deficits of $110 billion in 2010, $178 billion in 2011on top of more that $450 billion in underfunded state and municipal employee pension funds.

11. 資金不足的企業退休金炸彈 Underfunded Corporate Pensions Bomb. From $60 billion surplus in 2007 to $409 billion deficit in 2009. And a whopping 92% of the pension plans of companies are now underfunded. Defaults are guaranteed by taxpayers.

12. 消費者債務炸彈 Consumer Debt Bomb. Americans are still living beyond their means. Even with a downturn, consumer debt rose from about $2.3 to $2.5 trillion. Fat Cat Bankers love it -- yes love making matters worse by gouging cardholders and mortgagees, blocking help in foreclosures and bankruptcies.

13. 個人儲蓄炸彈 Personal Savings Bomb. Before the 2008 meltdown savings rate dropped from about 10% in the early 1980s to below zero. Now it's increasing, slowing retail recovery. Today, government's the big "unsaver."

14. 戰爭和軍事防禦赤字 War and Military Defense Deficits. Costs of Iraq and Afghanistan wars -- $200+ billion annually, $3 trillion minimum, with massive long-term costs for veteran medical care, equipment renewal, recruitment.

15. 國土不安全炸彈 Homeland Insecurity Bomb. Security at airports, seaports, borders, vulnerable chemical plants all increase budgets.

16. 聯儲 /財政部緊急救助炸彈 Fed/Treasury Bailout Bombs. Tax credits, loans, cash and purchase of toxic assets from Wall Street banks estimated at $23.7 trillion as new debt was shifted from too-big-to-fail Fat-Cat banks to taxpayers.

17. 貪得無厭華盛頓說客炸彈 Insatiable Washington Lobbyists Bombs. Paulson, Goldman, Geithner, Morgan and Wall Street banks, through their lobbyists and former employees working inside now have absolute power over government spending. Democracy and voters are now irrelevant in America's new corporate-socialism.

18. 影子銀行：衍生物炸彈 Shadow Banking: The Derivatives Bomb. Wall Street wants no regulation of this $670 trillion, high-risk, out-of-control casino that's highly leveraged versus the $50 trillion total GDP of all nations. We forget that derivatives almost destroyed global economies in 2008-09, finally will by 2012.

19. 兩黨政治的功能失調炸彈 Dysfunctional Two-Party Political Bomb. Polarized partisanship increasing: Every day both parties show zero interest in cooperating for the public good. Instead they fight viciously, resisting everything and anything proposed by opponents. Only goal: Score political points, make the other side look bad.

20. 來臨的人口眾多的叛亂炸彈 The Coming Populous Rebellion Bombs。. Nobody trusts anyone in authority. For good reason. So immediate gratification, short-term betting and a lack of long-term perspective wins for individual investors, consumers and taxpayers as well as Washington, Wall Street and Corporate America CEOs. Today: "Doing what's right for the common good and country" is just empty political rhetoric.

Forbes. The Economist. Davos-World Economic Forum. Bloomberg BusinessWeek. All one voice, one loud, lonely chorus echoing that famous Beatles tune: "Head in a cloud ... The fool on the hill, sees the sun going down ... a thousand voices talking perfectly loud. But nobody ever hears him, or the sound he appears to make ... And the eyes in his head, see the world spinning 'round ...ooh, round and round and round."

Historians and behavioral economists tell us most investors are blind optimists. Investors cannot see bubbles from inside their bubble. Nor Fat Cat Bankers from inside their mega-bonus-bubble. Nor politicians from inside the beltway bubble.

Why? The optimist's brain filters out bad news. They know their dreams of prosperity will come true. Then, when they finally do see that the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train, it's always too late.

I will say it again, gently: A new meltdown is coming. The Great Depression II is coming, soon. And yet, I know your mental filters are working, blocking warnings of a bomb. I can even hear you calling me "the fool on the hill who sees the sun going down, the world spinning round" ... sees you kissing your retirement goodbye.
我將輕輕地再說一遍：新的危機即將到來，大蕭條II在來臨中 - 很快。然而我知道你的精神過濾器正在工作，隔阻一個炸彈的警告。我什至能聽到你叫我“山上的蠢材在看着太陽下降、世界氹氹轉”...見你在吻別你的退休。

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/our-debt-time-bomb-is-ready-to-go-ka-boom-2010-02-02?pagenumber=1

債務風暴恐成次按翻版分裂歐元區
(明報)2010年2月6日 星期六 05:10
【明報專訊】葡萄牙、意大利、愛爾蘭、希臘及西班牙（簡稱PIIGS）財赤嚴重，各國財赤佔其國內生產總值近10％，市場憂慮這5國無力還債，會牽連整個歐洲甚至令歐元區瓦解，觸發另一場全球金融危機。

美元成避風港 歐元受壓
外界開始擔心希臘會成為下一個「次按危機」，因為希臘負債嚴重；市場亦擔心美國等全球多國政府負債纍纍。儘管外界預期歐盟和德國最終會出手救希臘，但歐元貶值反映了投資者正選擇冒較少風險。投資者把錢撤出歐洲，改為靠泊在相對安全的美元、日圓或美日短期官債等資產，為歐元下跌增添壓力，比利時及奧地利等地債市受壓以及歐洲銀行股價大跌，原因亦在於此。外界關注歐洲多國負債嚴重，已開始影響歐洲銀行及企業賴以集資的信貸市場，信貸評級較好的歐洲銀行和企業，信貸違約掉期（CDS）周四便顯著上升，特別是西班牙及葡萄牙銀行。

低息信貸谷經濟5國種禍根
過去數年，希臘及西班牙等5國是歐元區內增長最快的經濟體，靠低息政策和寬鬆的信貸環境，促進建造業發展及刺激消費。但金融危機曝露了PIIGS長期缺乏財政紀律和結構性缺陷。在加入歐元區之前，這些國家可透過貶值貨幣，以應對類似危機，但現在他們既沒貶值又沒減息等手段，只能選擇緊縮經濟政策，進一步推高失業率、打擊中期經濟增長。

歐元區成員無法貶值減息應變
另外，PIIGS五國中，西班牙的經濟規模最大，比希臘、葡萄牙及愛爾蘭加起來還要大近一倍，亦是歐元區第4大經濟體，這意味就算德國等肯拯救希臘，也未必有力出錢拯救西班牙。

PIIGS債務問題已觸發市場對歐盟可能面臨分裂風險的討論。《每日電訊報》引述歐洲央行近日一份報告指出，近期市場動向可能增加歐元區分裂的風險，該行正研究風險的逼切性，若一個國家退出歐元區，將會被歐盟除名。

德法利益優先弱國長線或退出
路透社分析直言，既使歐元區能暫保完整，但中長線不能排除一些較弱的成員退出。分析家認為，歐盟成員國的在政治經濟層面的分化愈見嚴重，權力核心進一步向德法兩國傾斜，加上目前歐元匯率較多個歐元區成員國的經濟強得多，要PIIGS同時採用歐元，但貨幣政策卻是首先照顧德法，必令PIIGS的經濟民生雪上加霜，若他們最終覺得成為歐元區一員的代價太高，便有可能退出，何况德法等國屆時也可能想甩掉這些弱國，不想歐元區增長被拖慢。

《紐約時報》專欄作家諾里斯（Floyd Norris）認為，問題的核心是歐洲各國不願真正統一或分開，只想在經濟上統一，但保持各國決策獨立。諾里斯質疑，若歐盟大國真的拯救PIIGS，PIIGS要放棄多少政策主權？諾里斯亦質疑德國會否出手相救，因東西德統一時，西德人亦不願拯救東德人。若歐洲央行不出手拯救只有兩個結果：一是希臘宣布破產，二是希臘退出歐盟。這兩個結果都會對歐盟、歐元和全球經濟帶來極大震盪。

華爾街日報/路透社/紐約時報
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/100205/4/gh6b.html

希臘爆工潮減赤路難行 葡萄牙國會向緊縮經濟說不
(明報)2010年2月6日 星期六 05:10
【明報專訊】歐洲債務危機惡化，減赤已成當前要務，但身處危機中心的希臘 和葡萄牙 卻因為國內政治壓力，在大幅減赤上舉步為艱。希臘政府大幅削減開支計劃，掀起了全國罷工浪潮；葡萄牙國會昨晚更向政府的緊縮經濟計劃說不，通過一項允許地方自治區自由運用財政權的議案，都令市場擔心兩國減赤措施將遇極大阻力。

希臘目前內外交困，既要應付投資者和歐盟 要求減赤的壓力，又要平息工人和公務員對政府大減開支的怒火。希臘政府去年財赤佔GDP比例高達12.7％，為確保將此比例降至3％或以下的水平，以符合歐盟的標準，希臘總理帕潘德里歐（George Papandreou）宣布凍結公務員薪酬、上調退休年齡和增加汽油稅。

希臘稅務部員工帶頭罷工
然而減赤新措施即時引爆民怨，希臘稅務部員工周四起一連4天罷工，揭開針對政府減赤計劃的連串罷工潮序幕。稅務部員工一方面駕車堵塞國境要道，阻礙商品運輸，一方面在財政部大樓外示威。除了公務員，多個工會亦計劃在稍後進行大罷工。擁有60萬名會員的希臘最大工會「希臘全國勞工總會」（GSEE），已呼籲工人在月底舉行全國大罷工。希臘過去許多示威活動都釀成流血衝突，今次工潮或令希臘更動盪。

同時，由反對派控制的葡萄牙國會，昨晚通過《地區財政法》，令兩個自治區的財政權不受中央限制，向左傾少數派政府說不。雖然議案引致的開支增幅有限，但政府稱議案等同「在最壞時刻給予市場錯誤信息」，擔心市場會質疑對葡萄牙減赤的決心。葡萄牙政府早前宣布多項措施迎戰債務危機，包括減省政府職位、凍結公務員薪酬和削減開支等，但不會加稅。

德不願帶頭拯救還望IMF
捲入債務風暴的西班牙 昨公布，去年第4季GDP收縮0.1％，仍未走出衰退。西班牙政府上周宣布，去年政府財赤佔GDP比例高達11.4％，比歐盟要求的3％上限，高出近3倍。為減赤字，該國宣布為期4年、旨在減少500億歐元支出的財政緊縮計劃。西班牙財長薩加多（Elena Salgado）聲稱，該國與希臘不同，其債務問題不會對歐元區構成風險。

紐約 梅隆銀行高級貨幣分析師德里克（Simon Derrick）說﹕「至今希臘還未回答關鍵問題，那就是，在資本市場不領情下，支持希臘和葡萄牙等財困國家的錢從哪裏來？」他認為，德國 不願帶頭領導拯救，最有可能的是國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）出手。IMF曾表示已準備好出手拯救。

美聯社/路透社/法新社
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/100205/4/gh6f.html