西班牙是否弄虛作假它的GDP數據？

西班牙是否弄虛作假它的國民生產總值數據？
Is Spain Is Faking Its GDP Data?
Gus Lubin
Business Insider
Thursday, September 30, 2010

An anonymous email making the rounds in Europe points out some disturbing discrepancies in Spanish economic data. For a long analysis, check out FT Alphaville.
一封匿名電子郵件在歐洲兜兜轉轉，指出一些令人不安的西班牙經濟數據的偏差。要很長的分析，查看金融時報的 Alphaville。
In short, the report’s author asks why Spain’s massive surge in unemployment during the recession did not yield a commensurate drop in GDP, as was the trend across Europe.
從短，報告的作者問，為什麼西班牙的失業人數在經濟衰退期間大量激增，沒有在國民生產總值取得相稱的下降，正如是整個歐洲的趨勢。
Thus, Spain’s unemployment-to-GDP change ratio is out of whack:
因此，西班牙的失業率對 GDP的變化率是不正常的：

The discrepancy carries over to measures of the service sector, which comprises 50% of Spanish GDP. The indicator of activity (IASS) strangely decoupled with gross value added (GVA), suggests that one of them was misreported.

What GDP makes sense based on these and other indicators? From a 3.1% drop a 17.3% collapse, the report says.

These rumors, whether or not true, may have a negative effect on Spain’s credit rating, which was downgraded by Moody’s today. On the other hand, the trick — if real — may have fooled the market long enough for a recovery to begin.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/rumor-spain-is-faking-its-gdp-data.html

西班牙指穆迪下調評級是過度悲觀的做法
2010年10月1日, 星期五
西班牙經濟部長Jose Manuel Campa稱，穆迪下調西班牙評級是過度悲觀的做法；而西班牙對穆迪有關該國財政措施的評價感到滿意。

http://www.hkej.com/template/onews/jsp/detail.jsp?title_id=38096