地球到2050年可能'面目全非'：專家說：海洋還有魚嗎？

地球到2050年可能'面目全非'：專家說
Planet could be 'unrecognizable' by 2050, experts say
– Sun Feb 20, 3:05 pm ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) – A growing, more affluent population competing for ever scarcer resources could make for an "unrecognizable" world by 2050, researchers warned at a major US science conference Sunday.

The United Nations has predicted the global population will reach seven billion this year, and climb to nine billion by 2050, "with almost all of the growth occurring in poor countries, particularly Africa and South Asia," said John Bongaarts of the non-profit Population Council.

To feed all those mouths, "we will need to produce as much food in the next 40 years as we have in the last 8,000," said Jason Clay of the World Wildlife Fund at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).

"By 2050 we will not have a planet left that is recognizable" if current trends continue, Clay said.

The swelling population will exacerbate problems, such as resource depletion, said John Casterline, director of the Initiative in Population Research at Ohio State University.

But incomes are also expected to rise over the next 40 years -- tripling globally and quintupling in developing nations -- and add more strain to global food supplies.

People tend to move up the food chain as their incomes rise, consuming more meat than they might have when they made less money, the experts said.

It takes around seven pounds (3.4 kilograms) of grain to produce a pound of meat, and around three to four pounds of grain to produce a pound of cheese or eggs, experts told AFP.

"More people, more money, more consumption, but the same planet," Clay told AFP, urging scientists and governments to start making changes now to how food is produced.

Population experts, meanwhile, called for more funding for family planning programs to help control the growth in the number of humans, especially in developing nations.

"For 20 years, there's been very little investment in family planning, but there's a return of interest now, partly because of the environmental factors like global warming and food prices," said Bongaarts.

"We want to minimize population growth, and the only viable way to do that is through more effective family planning," said Casterline.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110220/ts_afp/scienceuspopulationfood

2050年：海洋還有魚嗎？
2050: Will There Be Fish in the Ocean?Friday, February 18, 2011: 1:30 PM-4:30 PM
146B (Washington Convention Center )

Will there be fish in the ocean to feed our children and grandchildren? Can the marine environment continue to supply goods and services while maintaining biodiversity? Recent high-profile scientific publications have questioned this, but the science behind such predictions is incomplete, at best, and not necessarily resonating with policy-makers. The speakers will present new global assessments, with a focus on marine biodiversity and how food security is affected by the growing demand for seafood products. An interesting question, raised in connection with the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) 2010 Conference of the Parties, is, what will the cost for humanity be if we do not restore the world fisheries to produce maximum sustainable yield? The panel also will present a first estimate for how the abundance of fish in the world's ocean has changed over the last 60 years and will relate this to the first comprehensive analysis of the major driver for change in the oceans: the capacity of the world's fishing fleets. Based on global assessments and policy outlooks, we present how the future ocean may be shaped, and we draw lessons from a current World Bank study on future global fish supply and demand. To affect the future in the face of climate change and increasing demand, we focus on the use of economic instruments and on how networking between institutions with regional mandates can be used to develop and implement global policies for conservation, thereby helping avert a hunt for the last fish.
Organizer:Villy Christensen, University of British Columbia

Discussants:Michael Hirshfield, Oceana
and Daniel Pauly, University of British Columbia

Speakers:Reg Watson, University of Tasmania
Making Fishing Effort in the World Ocean Sustainable: Lessons from Historic Trends

Villy Christensen, University of British Columbia
Biomass of Fish in the World Ocean, 1950–2050: A Century of Decline?

Jacqueline Alder, United Nations Environment Program
The Oceans in 2050: Marine Biodiversity Outlook After CBD 2010

Siwa Msangi, International Food Policy Research Institute
Fish to 2030: Meeting the Steadily Increasing Demand for Fish

Henrik Österblom, Stockholm Resilience Center
Emerging Global Social Networks To Counter the Fisheries Crisis

Rashid Sumaila, University of British Columbia
How Can Economic Policies Help Avoid Future Collapses in the World Fisheries?

http://aaas.confex.com/aaas/2011/webprogram/Session2904.html

40年后地球將會“無法辨認” 人口暴增糧食奇缺
2011年02月22日08:09
來源：《華商報》

　據新華社電 40年后的地球會是怎樣？在今年美國科學促進會年會上，研究者告訴大家，那將是一個“難以辨認”的地球。隻不過，“無法辨認”並不是指科技高度發達，而是指人口暴增，糧食奇缺，資源匱乏。

　　按照聯合國預測，今年全球人口將突破70億，2050年將攀升至90億。世界自然基金會代表賈森克萊說，為了養

　　活這些人口，“未來40年間，我們人類需要產出過去8000年產出糧食的總和”，如果人口增長勢頭持續，“2050年，我們這個星球將變得無法辨認。”

http://env.people.com.cn/BIG5/13971470.html

人多糧少 40年後世界大不同(法新社)2011年2月21日 星期一 10:05
（法新社華盛頓 20日電） 多名研究人員今天在美國 一項主要科學會議中提出警告，愈來愈多富裕人口爭奪有史以來更稀少的資源，這種情形可能造成到2050年一個全然不同，「面目全非」的世界。

聯合國 已預測，全球人口在今年將達70億人，到2050年前將攀升至90億人。非營利組織「人口協會」（Population Council）人員邦加特斯（John Bongaarts）表示：「增加的人口都在貧窮國家，特別是在非洲 及南亞。」

世界野生生物基金會（World Wildlife Fund）研究人員克雷（Jason Clay）在「美國科學促進會」（AAAS）年度會議中指出，要餵養這麼多人，「我們在未來40年食物產量需和過去8000年產量相當」。

克雷表示，如果目前的趨勢持續，則「到2050年地球將面目全非」。

俄亥俄州立大學（Ohio State University）「人口研究計畫」（the Initiative in PopulationResearch ）主任凱特蘭（John Casterline）指出，人口日益膨脹將使很多問題惡化，如天然資源耗盡。

且在未來40年，預期收入也會增加，全世界平均將成長3倍，發展中國家將成長5倍，這也會使全球糧食供應壓力更大。

克雷告訴「法新社」：「人多、錢多，消耗更多，但仍是一樣的地球。」

他呼籲科學家和政府現在開始改變食物生產方式。

同時，人口專家也呼籲，提供更多資金推動家庭計畫方案，特別在發展中國家，以協助控制人口成長數。（譯者：中央社陳蓉）1
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/110221/8/msxv.html

20種跡象：一個可怕的全球性糧食危機在來臨中