IMF Says Next U.S. President Will Be The Last
Politics / US Politics
Apr 26, 2011 - 03:41 AM
By: Submissions
Translation by Autumnson Blog
John Rolls Submits: The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.
約翰羅爾斯提交：國際貨幣基金組織剛剛投下一個重磅炸彈，而沒有人注意到。
Brett Arends, MarketWatch For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.
市場監察的首次，國際組織布雷特阿茲這一刻已定下一個日期，“美國時代“將會結束，而美國經濟將被中國超越。
而那是比你可能在想的大大更接近。
According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.
根據最新的國際貨幣基金組織的官方預測，中國經濟將實質地在2016年超過美國 - 僅僅是從現在的五年後。
Put that in your calendar.
放那在你的日曆中。
It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.
它提供一痛苦的預算爭吵因由現正發生在華盛頓，它冒出大量的問題有關國際安全系統在衹有少數的年份將會是什麼樣。和它蒙上深厚的雲在美元和巨大的國債市場兩者，那已被撐起數十年以它們由於世界霸權的責任而享有的特權地位，。
According to the IMF forecast, which was quietly posted on the Fund’s website just two weeks ago, whoever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world’s largest economy.
據國際貨幣基金組織預測，那祇在兩星期前被悄悄地張貼在基金的網站，無論是誰在明年當選美國總統 - 奧巴馬？米特羅姆尼？唐納德特朗普？- 將會是最後一位去指揮世界上最大的經濟體。
Most people aren’t prepared for this. They aren’t even aware it’s that close. Listen to experts of various stripes, and they will tell you this moment is decades away. The most bearish will put the figure in the mid-2020s.
大多數人對這都沒有做準備，他們甚至不警覺它是那般近。聽聽多種類型的專家，和他們將會告訴你這一刻是幾十年後的事，最熊的將會把數字放在2020年代中期。
China’s economy will be the world’s largest within five years or so.
在五年左右中國的經濟將會是世界上最大的。
But they’re miscounting. They’re only comparing the gross domestic products of the two countries using current exchange rates.
但他們數錯數，他們只使用當前的匯率比對了兩個國家的國內生產總值。
That’s a largely meaningless comparison in real terms. Exchange rates change quickly. And China’s exchange rates are phony. China artificially undervalues its currency, the renminbi, through massive intervention in the markets.
真正有影响的比較
The comparison that really matters
In addition to comparing the two countries based on exchange rates, the IMF analysis also looked to the true, real-terms picture of the economies using “purchasing power parities.” That compares what people earn and spend in real terms in their domestic economies.
Under PPP, the Chinese economy will expand from $11.2 trillion this year to $19 trillion in 2016. Meanwhile the size of the U.S. economy will rise from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion. That would take America’s share of the world output down to 17.7%, the lowest in modern times. China’s would reach 18%, and rising.
Just 10 years ago, the U.S. economy was three times the size of China’s.
Naturally, all forecasts are fallible. Time and chance happen to them all. The actual date when China surpasses the U.S. might come even earlier than the IMF predicts, or somewhat later. If the great Chinese juggernaut blows a tire, as a growing number fear it might, it could even delay things by several years. But the outcome is scarcely in doubt.
This is more than a statistical story. It is the end of the Age of America. As a bond strategist in Europe told me two weeks ago, “We are witnessing the end of America’s economic hegemony.”
We have lived in a world dominated by the U.S. for so long that there is no longer anyone alive who remembers anything else. America overtook Great Britain as the world’s leading economic power in the 1890s and never looked back.
And both those countries live under very similar rules of constitutional government, respect for civil liberties and the rights of property. China has none of those. The Age of China will feel very different.
Submitted by John Rolls
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-bombshell-age-of-america-about-to-end-2011-04-25?link=MW_home_latest_news
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27760.html
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