"超巨型銀行擠提“來臨中：諾貝爾獎得主說

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"超巨型銀行擠提“來臨中：諾貝爾獎得主說
“Gigantic Bank Run” Coming, says Noble Prize Winner
11/2/2011 2:40:19 PM
By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul
Translation by Autumnson Blog

A “gigantic bank run” is imminent, so says Nobel Prize winner economist Paul Krugman.
一次“巨大的銀行擠提”迫在眉睫，諾貝爾獎得主經濟學家保羅克魯格曼這樣說。

In his Nov. 1 post, the economist every one enjoys making fun of believes the endgame for the euro lies in the breadbasket of the European sovereign debt market, Italy, leading to one of two lynchpin countries, France, to collapse next. Then, it's bedlam.
在他11月1日的帖文中，經濟學家人人都享受終結遊戲的樂趣，相信歐元躺在歐洲主權債務市場的最後階段麵包籃意大利中，導致兩個關鍵所在國家法國會下一步崩潰，然後是喧鬧。
“The question I’m trying to answer right now is how the final act will be played,” Krugman writes. “At this point I’d guess soaring rates on Italian debt leading to a gigantic bank run, both because of solvency fears about Italian banks given a default and because of fear that Italy will end up leaving the euro. This then leads to emergency bank closing, and once that happens, a decision to drop the euro and install the new lira. Next stop, France.”
“現在我試圖回答的問題是最後一幕將如何表演，”克魯格曼寫道， “在這一點上，我猜意大利債務的利率飆升，將導致一次巨大的銀行擠提，由於一方面是害怕意大利銀行被賦予違約的償付能力，而另一方面因為懼怕意大利將最終退出歐元。這然後會導致銀行緊急關閉，一旦發生這種情況，會有放棄歐元和裝置新里拉的決定；下一站法國。“
Krugman states the obvious, of course, but he offers no recommendation for Europeans to protect themselves from the all-but-certain currency devaluations as a result of a broken euro—not that he is expected to do so. But it's times like these, one would think that this quack of economics had a suggestion for Europeans to protect themselves from a currency collapse. Or maybe the collapse of euro is how Treasury will be able to fund its upcoming $628 billion offering in the coming five months without going to war in another part of the world, as he had once suggested. But in a previous post of Sept. 6, Krugman attempted to formulate a response to the “Glenn Beck” gold crowd—a response that Ben Bernanke could have used in response to Rep. Ron Paul's queries regarding gold.
當然克魯格曼陳述了明顯的，但他沒有對歐洲人提供保護自己的建議，從全部但可能有些貨幣因為破爛的歐元而貶值 - 不是他被預計這樣做。但是時候像這樣，人會認為經濟學的這種江湖醫生有給歐洲人從貨幣崩潰保護自己的建議。或者，也許歐元的崩潰是財政部將如何能夠金援它即將推出的$ 628億美元，在未來五個月內提供而在世界的另一邊沒有戰爭，正如他曾一度建議的。但在之前9月6日的帖子，克魯格曼試圖對“格倫貝克”的黃金人群制定一套反應 - 一套反應伯南克可能已使用來回應關於眾議員羅恩保羅對黃金的的查詢。
Krugman wrote, “ . . . [The] 'real' story about gold, in which the price has risen because expected returns on other investments have fallen; it is not, repeat not, a story about inflation expectations. Not only are surging gold prices not a sign of severe inflation just around the corner, they’re actually the result of a persistently depressed economy stuck in a liquidity trap — an economy that basically faces the threat of Japanese-style deflation, not Weimar-style inflation. So people who bought gold because they believed that inflation was around the corner were right for the wrong reasons.”

Nice try. Krugman doesn't get it, or doesn't want to get it. Investors buy gold because of the almost-predictable response to a “Japanese-style deflation” —that is, the political response—devalue the currency. A government that wants to prolong the eventual failure of a system Krugman has worked for so long defending won't stand idle along with its printing press. Hasn't Krugman noticed the course of action by the Fed to those ends so far?

Hyper-inflation, or just plain ol' very high inflation is the result of a series of political events and decisions, not economic or market ones. If he had read When Money Dies: The Nightmare of the Weimar Collapse by Adam Fergusson, he would be able to solve the 'puzzle' of a continued rise in the price of gold.

How, then, can we explain this man's elevation to a Noble Prize winner? Ask Obama; he may shed some light on the criteria used to award prizes these days. But a better explanation is attempted by Dr. Andrew Lobaczewski's, author of Ponerology: A Science on the Nature of Evil. In his book, Lobaczewski makes the comparison between the US and Germany during the rise of Adolf Hitler. He writes:

“A highly talented individual in the USA finds it ever more difficult to fight his way through to self-realization and a socially creative position. Universities, politics, and businesses ever more frequently demonstrate a united front of relatively untalented persons and even incompetent persons. The word 'overeducated' is heard more and more often. Such 'overqualified' individuals finally hide out in some foundation laboratory where they are allowed to earn the Nobel prize as long as they don’t do anything really useful. In the meantime, the country as whole suffers due to a deficit in the inspirational role of highly gifted individuals. As a result, America is stifling progress in all areas of life, from culture to technology and economics, not excluding political incompetence.”

Krugman can serve a purpose, however, outside of his sideshow opinions, much akin to what comes out of the mouth of the Pope; he can serve as a constant reminder that the US has devolved into a 'a truth is a lie, and a lie is a truth' type of society, just as Germany devolved during the 1920's and 30s.


http://www.beaconequity.com/smw/14310/-Gigantic-Bank-Run-Coming-says-Noble-Prize-Winner

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