The Impending Endgame In Oil Markets
U.S. president Trump is facing strong internal pressure to punish Saudi Arabia in the coming days.
For Washington, however, this could be a double-edged sword, as turning on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could result in two unwanted major geopolitical consequences. The still fresh Jamal Khashoggi murder case continues to make headlines due to a relentless anti-Saudi media and a diplomatic offensive by Turkey, Qatar and Western diplomats, and it could trigger the largest U.S.-Saudi/Arab crisis in decades.
U.S. politicians have set their sights on the position of the young Saudi Crown Prince, based on still unsubstantiated claims of direct involvement by Ankara and unnamed CIA-officials, U.S. president Trump finds himself backed into a corner to deal directly with the Kingdom.
Until now, the U.S. Administration has refrained from mentioning the direct involvement of MbS in the murder of the former Saudi journalist, but has put sanctions on the officials being connected to the case. Inside of the Kingdom, the pressure is also increasing but this time not to remove MbS, but instead to prepare a harsh response to any possible U.S. claims or sanctions on Royal Family members. Senior Saudi officials have already indicated that a direct attack by Washington or European leaders will be met by severe repercussions.
A Western-Turkish move to pressure Saudi King Salman to remove his son from power is at present unrealistic.Looking at the ongoing situation inside of the Kingdom, and in the Arab world, the support gathered the last weeks by the Saudis from their allies UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, is clear. No Arab country will allow for a ruling Crown Prince to be removed from power by an outside, non-Arab entity. Inside of the Kingdom, the atmosphere is very clear, keep your hands off MbS. In contrast to the ongoing discussions in the Western media or Turkish outlets, there are no clear signs of a growing opposition to the plans and rule of MbS. The Crown Prince has not only been able to weather the storm before and during the FII2018 period, when global media reported on a failure of the Desert in the Storm financial conference, he has also removed potential opposition to his Saudi Vision 2030 strategy and power plays before.
Still, some opposition exists, even if it is not vocal at the moment. Conservative elements in the Saudi power constellation, supported by former high-ranking Royals, will be waiting for any sign of weakness, trying to hit where it really hurts. Currently, three major factors could lead to instability: MbS’s future depends on a partial success of the high profile diversification of the Saudi economy, weaning it from its oil addiction, and implementing some hard needed changes to give future perspective to the large young population of the country.
At the same time, the diversification needs a reasonably high volume of FDI, which is supported by higher oil prices. For the immediate and mid-long term, MbS will need to have the support of the regional power players, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (Abu Dhabi), Bahrain’s Crown Prince, Egypt’s President Sisi and King Abdullah II of Jordan. Looking at FII2018 and the last weeks, these factors he still has in place. To counter the U.S., Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince has made the right choices the last couple of years. MbS and Russia’s Vladimir Putin are reading out of the same book. The ongoing OPEC-Russia cooperation comes out of the screenplay written by MbS (and Khalid Al-Falih) and Putin (supported by Novak). Even before the Khashoggi case, both leaders understood that in times of need new friends could be needed. At the same time, the advantages of changing sides or alliances had become clear after the disaster called the Arab Spring. The West went flat on its face, and left the region to bleed. The only strong man willing to bleed with the Arabs has been Putin, which is currently being appreciated in all Arab capitals, from East to West.
沒有留言:
發佈留言