2010年7月24日星期六

中國央行概述計劃去丟棄美元作為人民幣的樁

中國央行概述計劃去丟棄美元作為人民幣的樁
Chinese Central Bank Outlines Plan To Ditch The Dollar As The Yuan's Peg
Vincent Fernando, CFA
Jul. 23, 2010, 3:39 AM
Hu Xiaolian, deputy governor at the Chinese central bank, has released a paper which suggests it's soon time for China to peg the yuan to a basket of foreign currencies, rather than the U.S. dollar alone.
中國央行副行長胡曉煉已發布一份文件,提出很快時間中國會將人民幣掛在一籃子外國貨幣上,而不是單單美元。
This especially makes sense for China given that, going forward, the U.S. might not the voracious consumer it once was. Thus tying itself at the hip to the dollar might not be as useful as it was before.

Hu Xiaolian:

Compared with pegging to a single currency, the exchange rate regime with reference to a basket of currencies will help adjust exports and imports, current account, and balance of payment in a more effective manner. It has two-way movements of exchange rate. The RMB exchange rate has been basically stable at an adaptive and balanced level though it may fluctuate in both ways against any particular single currency.

Since the RMB exchange rate regime reform that started in 2005, the focus of public communications has been the RMB exchange rate regime with reference to a basket of currencies. But the mindset of focusing too much attention on RMB/USD exchange rate cannot be changed overnight due to behavioral habits and the dominant use of US dollar in accounting and statistics. This underpins the necessity for China to make more efforts to improve the exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand (mainly through the current account and especially the trade account balances) with reference to a basket of currencies. In the future, consideration can be given to disclosure of the nominal effective exchange rate information on a regular basis and to gradually shift the public´s attention on RMB/USD exchange rate to the effective exchange rate of RMB, which is the true reference for its movement.
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-yuan-currency-basket-change-2010-7

央行希望打破美元匯率思維
學者倡明年中擴闊波幅

2010-7-23
中國人民銀行副行長胡曉煉昨日在央行網站載文稱,要引導公眾改變主要關注人民幣兌美元雙邊匯率的習慣,逐漸把有效匯率水平作為人民幣匯率水平的參照系和調控的參考,未來也可嘗試定期公布名義有效匯率。 本報記者 彭巧容

胡曉煉在題為《有管理浮動匯率制度的三個要點》撰文提到,匯率浮動主要是調節實體經濟中的總進口和總出口,所以調節不能僅對一的雙邊貿易狀況,也不能僅看人民幣和美元之間的匯率。她稱,參考一籃子貨幣與盯住單一貨幣相比,更能發揮調節進出口、經常項目及國際收支的作用,也更能體現出匯率上下浮動的特點。

承認短期難改習慣模式
她強調,人民幣對單個貨幣有升有貶雙向浮動,整體上則是在合理均衡的基礎上保持穩定。而有效匯率籃子中的貨幣應多元化。在計入權重時,主要根據經常項目收支的情況,並結合資本項目收支和本國經濟主體跨境收支的幣種結構,選取與本國經濟來往密切的國家和地區的貨幣,以及經濟交往中使用頻繁的貨幣作為籃子貨幣。

她又解釋,雖然由主要貿易夥伴貨幣組成的一籃子貨幣的有效匯率最能代表貿易品國際比價的指標,但在實際操作中,還是未包括通脹差異調整的名義有效匯率更為常用。一是實際有效匯率的調整指數,即不同國家可比物價指標很難確定;二是計算實際有效匯率存在時間滯後和數據可得性的約束。

她承認,僅關注人民幣兌美元匯率的觀念短期內難以改變,這有長期形成的習慣問題,也有在會計、統計等方面使用美元較多的因素。提出未來可嘗試定期公布有效匯率,引導公眾改變主要關注人民幣兌美元雙邊匯率的習慣,逐漸把有效匯率水平作為人民幣匯率水平的參照系和調控的參考。她並稱,雖然匯率調整會給企業結構調整帶來一定壓力,但若貿易順差仍較大甚至快速增長,就表明企業總體上是適應的,調整是可以承受的。

匯率浮動體現三取向
她闡述說,中國有管理的浮動匯率制度包括三個方面的內容:一是以市場供求為基礎的匯率浮動,發揮匯率的價格信號作用;二是根據經常項目主要是貿易平衡狀況動態調節匯率浮動幅度,發揮「有管理」的優勢;三是參考一籃子貨幣,即從一籃子貨幣的角度看匯率,不片面地關注人民幣與某個單一貨幣的雙邊匯率。

她認為,對匯率浮動的管理主要體現三個取向:一是在宏觀經濟上要應對國際國內市場異動,防止匯率過大波動和金融市場投機;二是匯率向引導優化資源配置、趨向國際收支平衡的方向調整;三是與大多數企業在資源配置優化過程中的承受力相適應,避免出現大規模的關閉和裁員。
http://www.takungpao.com.hk/news/10/07/23/ZJ-1288363.htm

420間銀行要求世界一貨幣

美元死亡之日 2012年12月19日

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