英國科學家預測最熱的夏天在2012年

英國科學家預測最熱的夏天在2012年
UK scientists predict hottest summer in 2012
Savita Verma New Delhi,
January 6, 2012 | UPDATED 09:16 IST
Translation by Autumnson Blog

Global temperatures are likely to rise by nearly 0.5 degrees in 2012.
全球氣溫有可能在2012年上升近0.5度。

Enjoy the winter chill before scorcher summer sets in. The year 2012 may turn out to be among the top ten warmest years globally, and in the country, since 1850 - over 160 years.
盡情享受寒冬在暑氣逼人的大熱天降臨之前，2012年可能是自1850年以來 - 超過 160年，全球性地及在國內成為十個最熱的年份之一。
The year is also expected to be warmer than the previous year, which was the ninth warmest year for India since 1901.
今年也將預計較上年溫暖，那是印度自1901年以來第九最暖的一年。
Weather scientists have predicted that 2012 is expected to be around 0.48 degree Celsius warmer than the average temperature or the long term global average.
氣象科學家們已作預測，2012年預計將約 0.48度攝氏比平均溫度或長期的全球平均溫度更温暖。
"Temperatures have been on the higher side during the last decade due to global warming," director- general of India Meteorological Department Dr Ajit Tyagi said.
“過去十年由於全球變暖，氣溫一直在較高的一方，印度氣象局總幹事阿吉特Tyagi博士說。”
However, he added that the new predictions about 2012 need not be a cause for alarm in the country. According to the weather department's analysis, while 2011 was the ninth warmest year since 1901, 2010 was the warmest year on record since 1901. The other warmer years were 2009, 2007, 2006, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 1998, 1999, 1958 and 1941.
不過，他補充關於 2012年新的預測，不必要在國內成為警報的因由。據氣象部門的分析，儘管2011年是1901年以來第九最暖的一年，2010年是1901年有記錄以來最熱的一年。其它較暖的年份是2009年，2007年，2006年，2004年，2003年，2002年，2001年，1998年，1999年，1958年和1941年。
Temperatures were generally near normal over most parts of the country in 2011 except parts of Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura where these were above normal by over one degree Celsius.

Indian weather scientists said that generally La Nina, the weather phenomenon which is likely to cause higher temperatures in 2012, has positive impact on monsoons in India.

"We can hope for a favourable monsoon if there is a building up of La Nina," Dr J. R. Kulkarni, a senior scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, said. He, however, added that it is too early to predict La Nina's impact on monsoon because there have been years of bad monsoon despite La Nina. There are several other weather phenomena that decide which way the Indian monsoon would go.

According to Indian scientists, prediction about the likely rise in temperatures has been made for the entire year. The impact would depend on which part of the year the temperature rises. For example, if the temperature is higher during March, it may impact wheat production because higher temperatures prevent grain formation.

Allaying fears, another weather scientist said that these predictions are based on weather models which usually have a margin of error.

The long term global average is taken as 14 degree Celsius which has been calculated on the basis of temperatures during the years 1961- 1990.

The year 2012 is expected to see higher than this average temperature in the range of 0.34 degree Celsius to 0.62 degree Celsius, according to an advisory issued by the UK Met office.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which keeps tabs on the global weather and climate conditions, will issue its annual statement on the status of the global climate in March.

As per the WMO's report for 2011, it was the eleventh warmest year on record globally with above average temperatures by around 0.36 degree Celsius. The year had experienced the weather phenomenon called La Nina which, paradoxically, has a cooling influence.

During La Nina, sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central, eastern Pacific Ocean are lower than normal by three to five degrees Celsius.

La Nina is characterised by unusually cold ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It is the opposite of El Nina effect which is marked by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures.

The two events are strongly linked to changes in atmospheric pressure and large scale wind circulation patterns and are considered to be the opposite phases of air-sea interactions.

Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal forecasting at the UK's met office said, "While 2010 was a record warm year, in 2011 we saw a very strong La Nina which can temporarily cool global temperatures. The La Nina has returned and although it is not as strong as early last year, it is still expected to influence temperatures in the year ahead. Therefore we expect 2012 to be slightly warmer than last year but not as warm as 2010," Scaife said.

The year 2010 is seen as the warmest year globally with temperatures being 0.53 degree Celsius above the average, followed by 2005, 1998, 2003, 2002, 2009, 2006, 2007, 2004, 2001 and 2011. In both 2001 and 2011, temperatures were 0.41 degree Celisus above the average of 14 degrees.

"Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached new highs. They are very rapidly approaching levels consistent with a 2- 2.4 degree Celsius rise in the average global temperatures which scientists believe could trigger far reaching and irreversible changes in our earth, biosphere and oceans," WMO secretary-general Michel Jarraud said.

The 13 warmest years have occurred in the 15 years since 1997.

Strong La Nina years are 0.10 to 0.15 degree Celsius cooler than the years preceding and following them. The year 2011' s global temperatures followed the pattern, being lower than those of 2010, but were still warmer than the most recent moderate to strong La Nina years - 2008, 2000 and 1989.

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/uk-scientists-predict-hottest-summer-in-2012/1/167404.html