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2018年7月19日星期四

全球性人口增長於1988年停止......自那時起人口只有增壽

全球性人口增長於1988年停止......自那時起人口只有增壽
Global Population Growth Ceased In 1988...Population Has Only Grown Older Since Then
 Jul 19, 2018
The world stopped growing about 1988... and has only grown older since.
Global births, per five year periods, according to the UN.
Births and UN medium and low variant estimates through 2040...plus my best estimate of the most likely births. Despite the significantly larger (older) total population, births continue to languish and appear set to decline. Since 2000, total births are declining everywhere except Africa.
Assuming the UN medium variant...chart below shows births by Africa, S. Asia (India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Iran, Sri Lanka) and the world minus Africa / S. Asia..
Or, looking at births by GNI (gross national income) per capita. Only the poorest nations are having more children, while all other nations (by income) are having significantly fewer (high income and upper middle) or stalling (lower middle income nations).
The next charts below show the child bearing populations, from high, upper middle, lower middle, and low income countries (based on 2016 GNI per capita, detailed by the World Bank HERE).
For the high income countries, peak annual growth in the child bearing population took place as of 1963, but the total child bearing population didn't peak until 2009. The population capable of child birth will continue falling through at least 2030 and likely far longer. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-19/global-population-growth-ceased-1988population-has-only-grown-older-then

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