來啦來啦! Umprecedented的合作 - EARTH EX8月21日漆黑天空
Emerging, Umprecedented Collaboration- EARTH EX BLACK SKY
JUNE 23, 2019
Charting a Course Complex Catastrophes
As the clock ticks we draw ever closer to a Black Sky and ever closer cascading catastrophes. A Black Sky Hazard is a catastrophic event that severely disrupts the normal functioning of our critical infrastructures in multiple regions for long durations, from days to years unto generations. On August 21 the third annual global event will be conducted to prepare. It will be an Emergency All-sector Response Transnational Hazard Exercise
EMERGING, UNPRECEDENTED RISK In our hyperconnected world, any extreme regional disaster could quickly become a complex catastrophe.
You and I depend upon lifeline infrastructures that are interconnected and resourced on unprecedented scales, with engineered integration of supply chains spanning nations and, increasingly, the world.
Our infrastructure was designed much like an organism; tightly integrated networks are vulnerable to collapse from failure of any major component. Black Sky will consider the paths and key milestones toward securing the many dimensions of this global network.
Concerns have grown over the potential for severe malicious or natural “Black Sky” hazards associated with subcontinent scale, long duration power outages, with cascading failure of all our other globally resourced, interdependent infrastructures.
This creates a grim reaper event and difficult dilemma:
It is believed that restoration of any sector, and population sustainment during the emergency, will only be possible with carefully planned – and exercised – international, multisector and societal planning and cooperation.
To deal with this deadlock, building and exercising careful sector by sector and cross-sector resilience planning is crucial requiring an unprecedented, multi-sector, national and international exercise series, even down to your own personal preparations, for it is coming.
Feds Preparing for Black Sky Event
When it comes to catastrophes you have all heard the phrase, "It’s been called a matter of “when, not if.” Some of the most powerful people in the world are meeting to discuss how the world will react to a “Black Sky” event, a large-scale catastrophe that would disrupt the functioning of critical national infrastructure such as power supplies.
The date for the exercise is intriguing. It is planned for August 21, 2019. That day seemed oddly familiar and so yesterday I did a bit of research and discovered why the date sent my red flag alert flag waving. The following comes from spaceweather.com. It is important to note that Black Sky X is three years old.
2018: Ribbons of light dance in the night skies above us that are distinct from the aurora borealis a report on what exactly is the new sky phenomena STEVE was released. Is STEVE Particle Precipitation or Ionospheric Skyglow?
2017: Under the cover of Black Sky from a Total Solar Eclipse the first Black Sky exercise was conducted although few people were paying attention due to the media frenzy about the Great American Solar Eclipse. During the minutes of totality, the whole world changes. Saying that day turns into night barely scratches the surface of it. The shadow of the Moon lances down to Earth from a quarter million miles away. On one end is you; on the other end is a million square miles of dusty lunar terrain. You're connected, and you can feel the cold.
Prophetic Black Sky
It is no wonder the Fed's are planning for a Black Sky because it is embedded with the pages of Holy Scripture. The Old Testament prophets, the Lord Jesus Christ, and the Church apostles all spoke of a celestial blackout of planet earth that will herald the Day of the Lord is drawing very close. The Day of the Lord is not the same as the seven-year tribulation period, but follows immediately after the tribulation has ended.
Jesus says that the days prior to His return will be as the Days of Noah. We can take this data that He relayed to us in many levels such as literal or straight meaning, deep hints of metaphoric/allegorical meaning, inquiring about other similar meanings within the biblical texts, or mystical or hidden meanings. Straightforwardly, it literally can mean that clouds will cover the earth as they did at the time of Noah. As our sun is silent after the peak activity of thousands of years, the magentosphere is buckling, and we proceeding through an intergalactic dust field allowing cosmic days to bombard our planet causing a cosmic ray maximum and causing untold damage to life on earth.
Let us look at the Scriptures that predict the planet wide blackout including the whole earth being under a cloud of thick darkness not just a small path as we recently observed with the solar eclipse:
9 Behold, the day of the Lord is coming, Cruel, with fury and burning anger, To make the land a desolation; And He will exterminate its sinners from it. 10 For the stars of heaven and their constellations Will not flash forth their light; The sun will be dark when it rises And the moon will not shed its light. 11 Thus I will punish the world for its evil And the wicked for their iniquity; I will also put an end to the arrogance of the proud And abase the haughtiness of the ruthless. 12 I will make mortal man scarcer than pure gold And mankind than the gold of Ophir. 13 Therefore I will make the heavens tremble, And the earth will be shaken from its place At the fury of the Lord of hosts In the day of His burning anger. 14 And it will be that like a hunted gazelle, Or like sheep with none to gather them, They will each turn to his own people, And each one flee to his own land. 15 Anyone who is found will be thrust through, And anyone who is captured will fall by the sword. 16 Their little ones also will be dashed to pieces Before their eyes; Their houses will be plundered And their wives ravished. Isaiah 13:6-16 NASB
2 Son of man, prophesy and say, ‘Thus says the Lord God,
“Wail, ‘Alas for the day!’ 3 “For the day is near, Even the day of the Lord is near; It will be a day of clouds, A time of doom for the nations. 4 “A sword will come upon Egypt, And anguish will be in Ethiopia; When the slain fall in Egypt, They take away her wealth, And her foundations are torn down. Ezekiel 30:2-4 NASB
Consecrate a fast, Proclaim a solemn assembly; Gather the elders And all the inhabitants of the land To the house of the Lord your God, And cry out to the Lord. 15 Alas for the day! For the day of the Lord is near, And it will come as destruction from the Almighty. Has not food been cut off before our eyes, Gladness and joy from the house of our God? Joel 1:14-16 NASB
1 Blow a trumpet in Zion, And sound an alarm on My holy mountain! Let all the inhabitants of the land tremble, For the day of the Lord is coming; Surely it is near, 2 A day of darkness and gloom, A day of clouds and thick darkness. As the dawn is spread over the mountains, So there is a great and mighty people; There has never been anything like it, Nor will there be again after it To the years of many generations. 3 A fire consumes before them And behind them a flame burns. The land is like the garden of Eden before them But a desolate wilderness behind them, And nothing at all escapes them. Joel 2:1-3, 10-12 NASB
10 Before them the earth quakes, The heavens tremble, The sun and the moon grow dark And the stars lose their brightness. 11 The Lord utters His voice before His army; Surely His camp is very great, For strong is he who carries out His word. The day of the Lord is indeed great and very awesome, And who can endure it? 12 “Yet even now,” declares the Lord, “Return to Me with all your heart, And with fasting, weeping and mourning;
“I will display wonders in the sky and on the earth, Blood, fire and columns of smoke. 31 “The sun will be turned into darkness And the moon into blood Before the great and awesome day of the Lord comes. Joel 2:30-31 NASB
13 Put in the sickle, for the harvest is ripe. Come, tread, for the wine press is full; The vats overflow, for their wickedness is great. 14 Multitudes, multitudes in the valley of decision! For the day of the Lord is near in the valley of decision. 15 The sun and moon grow dark And the stars lose their brightness. Joel 3:13-15 NASB
17 “And in all the vineyards there is wailing, Because I will pass through the midst of you,” says the Lord. 18 Alas, you who are longing for the day of the Lord, For what purpose will the day of the Lord be to you? It will be darkness and not light; 19 As when a man flees from a lion And a bear meets him, Or goes home, leans his hand against the wall And a snake bites him. 20 Will not the day of the Lord be darkness instead of light, Even gloom with no brightness in it? 21 “I hate, I reject your festivals, Nor do I delight in your solemn assemblies. Amos 5:17-19 NASB
15 “For the day of the Lord draws near on all the nations. As you have done, it will be done to you. Your dealings will return on your own head. 16 “Because just as you drank on My holy mountain, All the nations will drink continually. They will drink and swallow And become as if they had never existed. Obadiah 1:15-16 NASB
6 And those who have turned back from following the Lord,
And those who have not sought the Lord or inquired of Him.”
7 Be silent before the Lord God! For the day of the Lord is near, For the Lord has prepared a sacrifice, He has consecrated His guests. 8 “Then it will come about on the day of the Lord’s sacrifice That I will punish the princes, the king’s sons And all who clothe themselves with foreign garments.
14 Near is the great day of the Lord, Near and coming very quickly; Listen, the day of the Lord! In it the warrior cries out bitterly. 15 A day of wrath is that day, A day of trouble and distress, A day of destruction and desolation, A day of darkness and gloom, A day of clouds and thick darkness, 16 A day of trumpet and battle cry Against the fortified cities And the high corner towers. 17 I will bring distress on men So that they will walk like the blind, Because they have sinned against the Lord; And their blood will be poured out like dust And their flesh like dung. 18 Neither their silver nor their gold Will be able to deliver them On the day of the Lord’s wrath; And all the earth will be devoured In the fire of His jealousy, For He will make a complete end, Indeed a terrifying one, Of all the inhabitants of the earth. Zephaniah 1:6-8, 14-18 NASB 1 Gather yourselves together, yes, gather, O nation without shame, 2 Before the decree takes effect— The day passes like the chaff— Before the burning anger of the Lord comes upon you, Before the day of the Lord’s anger comes upon you. 3 Seek the Lord, All you humble of the ]earth Who have carried out His ordinances; Seek righteousness, seek humility. Perhaps you will be hidden In the day of the Lord’s anger. Zephaniah 2:1-3 NASB
6 In that day there will be no light; the luminaries will dwindle.7 For it will be a unique day which is known to the Lord, neither day nor night, but it will come about that at evening time there will be light. (Note: this passage seems to indicate the Day of the Lord will be a time warp like what occurred twice in the old Testament). Zechariah 14:6-7 NASB
4 “Remember the law of Moses My servant, even the statutes and ordinances which I commanded him in Horeb for all Israel. 5 “Behold, I am going to send you Elijah the prophet before the coming of the great and terrible day of the Lord. 6 He will restore the hearts of the fathers to their children and the hearts of the children to their fathers, so that I will not come and smite the land with a curse.” Malachi 4:4-6 NASB
29 “But immediately after the tribulation of those days the sun will be darkened, and the moon will not give its light, and the stars will fall from the sky, and the powers of the heavens will be shaken. 30 And then the sign of the Son of Man will appear in the sky, and then all the tribes of the earth will mourn, and they will see the Son of Man coming on the clouds of the sky with power and great glory. 31 And He will send forth His angels with a great trumpet and they will gather together His elect from the four winds, from one end of the sky to the other. Matthew 24:29-31 NASB
10 But the day of the Lord will come like a thief, in which the heavens will pass away with a roar and the elements will be destroyed with intense heat, and the earth and its works will be burned up. 11 Since all these things are to be destroyed in this way, what sort of people ought you to be in holy conduct and godliness, 12 looking for and hastening the coming of the day of God, because of which the heavens will be destroyed by burning, and the elements will melt with intense heat! 13 But according to His promise we are looking for new heavens and a new earth, in which righteousness dwells.2 Peter 3:10-13 NASB
People around the world are engaging and preparing for the coming Black Sky ahead. Corporate and government teams, community leaders, individuals and family's anywhere in the world build interconnected resilience planning to sustain our future but the most critical are spiritual preparations. The End Day Black Sky will be symbolic of the condition of mankind's spiritual condition.
We must prepare our spiritual house and also our physical home for dark days indeed. This exercise allows you the opportunity to participate in a grid down scenario to test you and your families preparations for living without modern conveniences. Typically, I would not encourage exercise participation but this is a chance for you to learn where your strengths and weaknesses in your personal plans. That said, realize that there will be overall surveillance of humanities readiness.
Just how serious or realistic is a grid down situation? As we can clearly see it is predicted in the Bible which is our handbook for life both now and for our future. What can precipitate a Black Sky? The following comes from the EIS Council, but ultimately, it is the Hand of God darkening the sky during His appointed time of judgment.
EMP – High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse
A nuclear detonation in the upper atmosphere creates an electromagnetic pulse (EMP), a powerful, damaging electromagnetic field covering a subcontinent-scale region.
It is important to note that, due to the statistical nature of field characteristics, most conventional computers and low voltage electronics will likely be unaffected and available to be reenergized if power grid operation can be restored – a key factor in enabling cost effective power grid protection strategies – and in preserving the viability of most of the customer “load” that will also be essential to such strategies.
The size of the affected region depends on burst height, and certain features of the warhead.
Based on the full range of U.S. and international government studies and laboratory hardware vulnerability tests, and on U.S. and Russian nuclear testing, an EMP strike on an unprotected power grid, especially given its large, multi-region footprint, would cause an extended duration, subcontinent-scale duration power outage, and would precipitate cascading, direct and indirect failures of all other critical societal infrastructures.
EMP has been studied and addressed diligently as a military threat for over 50 years. In the United States, EMP has been treated by DOD as an active, growing hazard for decades. In 2011 the U.S. Defense Science Board renewed and highlighted this policy, issuing an interim report citing progress, coupled with ongoing recommendations for EMP survivability of certain DOD assets. In 2015, DOD expanded these recommendations to mandate EMP protection of “all mission critical facilities,” and announced its plans to reopen, upgrade and reoccupy the Cheyenne Mountain military complex due to its intrinsic EMP-protected characteristics.
The Congressional EMP Commission noted that deterring attack from terrorists who acquire nuclear weapons would be especially difficult because “such groups have no state identity, have only one or a few weapons, and are motivated to attack the US without regard for their own safety.”
The United States and its partners abroad conduct a variety of programs to reduce the likelihood that terrorist groups can acquire the nuclear materials and other components necessary for building such weapons. The Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program, for example, helps secure nuclear materials in the former Soviet Union. While these programs have demonstrated substantial progress in reducing the threat that nuclear materials will be stolen, current estimates assess that, as of January 2012, there were still approximately 1440 tons of highly enriched uranium and around 500 tons of separated plutonium stockpiled globally -- providing a vast array of potential targets for terrorists seeking such materials. Other concerns include increasing proliferation of “nuclear weapon precursor” technology, and security concerns associated with the growing stockpiles of nuclear warheads and missiles in the control of unstable or unfriendly nations.
IEMI - Intentional Electromagnetic Interference
The pulse from an Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) devices can be far higher in magnitude and frequency than EMP, though its effective range is far shorter, affecting only discrete “point” targets. When manufactured as weapons, IEMI devices, also known as Radio Frequency (RF) weapons, can in some cases produce multiple, repeated pulses, and are typically quite mobile. A primary concern for such weapons is similar to that for Coordinated Physical Assault (see below), with the potential for severe, national consequences resulting from coordinated use on critical infrastructure nodes.
This hazard has been characterized as a “dumb” cyber threat, as the assets most vulnerable are computers and electronics. IEMI weapons can damage or destroy microprocessors, corrupt or wipe out data on hard drives, and could cause misoperation of relays and electrical arcing in high power system components such as transformers. Commercial and military versions of these systems are available or under development in a growing number of nations.
While industry and government have made good progress in strengthening security against cyber threats, the destructiveness and sophistication of cyber weapons have grown rapidly. Critical infrastructures now typically work to continually advance and adapt protective measures, network architecture designs and security protocols.
The pervasive and covert nature of this threat has dramatically affected the architecture of security protocols in the United States and allied governments. During the 20th Century, the traditional security framework of the military-industrial complex was characterized by a clean division of responsibility, with private industry producing weapons and services for the Federal government, and the nation’s armed forces providing security for the nation. Now, utilities are attacked many thousands of times every day by cyber weapons, and are ultimately responsible to their customers and shareholders for securing their own systems and operations against such threats. To help meet this novel challenge, Federal agencies have partnered with utilities to create an unprecedented array of mechanisms for information sharing and security collaboration.
A similar transformation in security architecture is underway within the government – in particular, between states and the Federal Departments traditionally responsible for security challenges. Now, state-governors who have the primary responsibility for the public health and safety of their citizens must directly address security concerns stemming from cyber-threats.
The Cyber Threat to Electric Infrastructure
One of the most critical security priorities for state-governors has become protection of electric infrastructure against targeted attack. An extended power outage caused by a cyber-attack would jeopardize the functioning of hospitals, municipal water systems and other infrastructure vital for saving and sustaining lives, as well as directly threatening state information networks and functions that are vital for continuity of government and the delivery of essential services.
As cyber-attacks become more frequent, energy systems are increasingly being targeted. DHS’s Industrial Control Systems Cyber Emergency Response Team (ICS-CERT) reported responding to 198 cyber incidents in fiscal year 2012 across all critical infrastructure sectors. Forty-one percent of these incidents involved the energy sector, particularly electricity. The number of such reported attacks grew to 256 in 2013, with over half targeting the energy sector.
This targeting of the electric infrastructure is one of the central concerns that caused the widely reported, recent conclusion by the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) that cyber-attacks are eclipsing terrorism as the primary threat facing the United States.
A key, central concern, for both the electric grid and other lifeline infrastructures, is that confidence in assuring the security of such infrastructures against a determined, carefully planned cyber attack on systems critical to national grid continuity is far less than 100%. As a result, it is now broadly accepted that the risk of a consequent multi-region, long duration power outage, associated with widely distributed grid IT, OT and critical hardware damage, is significant.
Coordinated Physical Assault
Like cyber or IEMI attack scenarios, Coordinated physical attack on critical infrastructure sector nodes, could create power outages of exceptionally wide geographic scope and long duration.
In addition, the risk of integrating physical with cyber and/or IEMI in a combined arms campaign represents another, disturbing area of risk. Military strategists have long understood that by attacking with multiple means at once, attackers can achieve a greater effect than if each element were used separately or sequentially. In a classic demonstration of the value of combined arms strategies, Napoleon’s Grand Armee employed infantry, artillery and cavalry in integrated operations to help him achieve decisive victories. Modern militaries frequently combine air, infantry and armor forces to create such synergies.
Gerry Cauley, president and CEO of The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), expressed his apprehension about such a combined arms attack to the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee:
“I am most concerned about coordinated physical and cyber-attacks intended to disable elements of the power grid or deny electricity to specific targets, such as government or business centers, military installations, or other infrastructures.”
Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta spoke along similar lines:
“The most destructive scenarios involve cyber actors launching several attacks on our critical infrastructure at one time, in combination with a physical attack on our country. Attackers could also seek to disable or degrade critical military systems and communication networks. The collective result of these kinds of attacks could be a “cyber Pearl Harbor:” an attack that would cause physical destruction and the loss of life. In fact, it would paralyze and shock the nation and create a new, profound sense of vulnerability.”
Seismic Event – High Magnitude Earthquake
In many regions of the United States and other nations, earthquakes risk causing substantial physical disruption, with associated long duration power outages. The New Madrid seismic zone exemplifies these risks. The New Madrid fault roughly parallels the Mississippi River, and produced a 7.7 earthquake in 1812.
A recurrence of that earthquake today would damage or destroy many hundreds of electric substations, high voltage transformers and transmission lines, generators, and other grid components over a multistate region including Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, and potentially other States. The Department of Energy has assessed that such an event would not only disrupt power in the New Madrid region but far beyond, with outages potentially affecting 100-150 million people across the Northeast, Southeast and Midwest United States.
GMD – Geomagnetic Disturbance (Severe Space Weather)
Typically many times each year, the sun ejects a portion of its coronal mass into space. If the highly- energetic, electrically and magnetically charged matter characteristic of these Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) encounters the Earth it distorts the Earth’s geomagnetic field, inducing potentially damaging GIC (Geomagnetically Induced Current) in long transmission lines and transformers, the “ligaments” of a national-scale power grid.
Severe Space Weather-induced Geomagnetic Disturbance (GMD) can last anywhere from several minutes to several days. Depending on the magnitude and duration of unplanned, transient current and the design and condition of transformers, especially the critical Extra High Voltage (EHV) transformers, voltage instabilities and transformer damage or degradation can occur.
In modern times, satellite-based sensors observe powerful Coronal Mass Ejections relatively frequently. Historically, the frequency at which powerful CMEs have affected the earth is estimated as once per 100 – 200 years. The largest CME-event in relatively recent history, the “Carrington Event,” occurred in 1859, followed 62 years later by another event of similar magnitude, the 1921 “Railroad Storm.” Although both events caused serious damage to the global telegraph network and the related systems that existed at those times, effects of similar storms on modern power grids would be incomparable.
Such an event almost took place quite recently, when a Coronal Mass Ejection occurred in July, 2012. According to researchers from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), if the eruption had occurred one week earlier massive clouds of magnetized plasma would have struck the earth. The resulting geomagnetic storm, according to NASA scientist Daniel Baker, would have been at least as strong as the Carrington event.
Hurricanes and Other Severe Weather Events
The Edison Electric Institute’s report, “Before and After the Storm,” documents the nationwide array of investments and emerging best practices that investor-owned utilities are making in response to lessons learned from Sandy, and in anticipation of more severe events in the future. In some cases, public utility commissions and state and local leaders are also undertaking a range of initiatives to help them assess requirements and review proposals for such investments, both in the states immediately affected by Sandy and far beyond.
There is compelling evidence that the increase in severe weather patterns in recent decades signifies a general increasing severity in these hazards, either due to periodic, heuristic factors, or to the climate change effects induced by modern society.
Department of Energy and other government-sponsored reports highlight the risk that climate change will produce increasingly extreme weather events and other challenges to grid resilience. DOE found in 2013 that “increasing temperatures, decreasing water availability, more intense storm events and sea level rise will each independently, and in some cases in combination, affect the ability of the United States to produce and transmit electricity….”
The 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment noted that “extreme storm surge events at high tides are expected to increase, raising the risk of inundating energy facilities such as power plants, refineries, pipelines, and transmission and distribution networks.”
These risk factors, along with the risk of infrequent “mega-events” falling outside the range of projected extreme storm events, suggest that future weather-event damage will not remain within the limits of recent experience, or within the bounds of straightforward scaling from such experience.
Final Note on Exercises
I have had decades of experience participating and designing exercises. Exercises are designed over long periods of time to address and test certain objectives so that gaps can be fixed. In every exercise that I have ever been involved with there is the test exercise and there simultaneously is a real world event. It has happened every single time. You need to be prepared for that eventuality, whether you participate in this exercise or not. We are headed for a Dark Sky as we plummet towards fulfillment of prophecy. God speed, my friends.