Gloom, Boom & Doom的法貝爾預計全球經濟崩潰
2011-12-08
Dec. 8 - Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, says there will be a global market collapse and the entire derivatives market will one day cease to exist.
十二月八日 - Gloom, Boom and Doom報告的出版商馬克法貝爾表示，會有一場全球性的市場崩潰，及整個衍生產品市場會有一天不復存在。
歐元區銀行系統是否即將崩潰？
Is The Eurozone Banking System About To Collapse?
December 11, 2011
Cam Hui
Translation by Autumnson Blog
The Telegraph sounded alarm bells late Friday that the Eurozone banking system [is] on the edge of collapse. Specifically, the problem is related to a lack of acceptable collateral, or "collateral crunch", for overnight and other short-term bank funding [emphasis added]:
電訊報上週五敲響喪鐘，歐元區銀行系統[是]在崩潰的邊緣。具體來說，問題關係到可接受的抵押品不足，或“抵押品危機”，對隔夜及其它短期銀行融資[強調補充]：
Senior analysts and traders warned of impending bank failures as a summit intended to solve the European crisis failed to deliver a solution that eased concerns over bank funding.The eurozone banking system is paralyzed by counterparty
The European Central Bank admitted it had held meetings about providing emergency funding to the region's struggling banks, however City figures said a "collateral crunch" was looming.
"If anyone thinks things are getting better then they simply don't understand how severe the problems are.
I think a major bank could fail within weeks," said one London-based executive at a major global bank.
我認為一间大銀行可能會在幾週內失敗，“一位全球主要銀行駐倫敦的行政人員。
Many banks, including some French, Italian and Spanish lenders, have already run out of many of the acceptable forms of collateral such as US Treasuries and other liquid securities used to finance short-term loans and have been forced to resort to lending out their gold reserves to maintain access to dollar funding.
歐元區銀行系統被交易對手的
Bank deposits with the ECB now stand at their highest level since June 2010 at €905bn (£772bn) as lenders withdraw deposits held with their peers and put them into the central bank. At the same time, banks in major eurozone countries such as France and Italy have become increasingly reliant on central bank funding. This follows the trend seen in smaller countries like Ireland where lenders have effectively becomes taxpayer-funded "zombie" banks.德國央行漸耗盡手上的錢
The Bundesbank is running out of money
Izabella Kaminska at FT Alphaville has was on this story early and she has covered it well. She wrote that the problem is becoming so acute that even the Bundesbank is running out of money. She explains that the ECB isn't a single central bank, but a collection of central banks [emphasis added]:
While policy is decided centrally, actual enforcement and implementation of that policy is conducted on a national central bank (NCB) level.She pointed to a blog post at VoxEU which summarized Bundesbank's problem [emphasis added]:
That means every NCB is in charge of providing liquidity to its own particular market. The Irish NCB’s routine distribution of emergency liquidity assistance (ELAs) on a near enough unilateral basis (there’s only the need to notify central command in Frankfurt) is a good example of how the system works.
All payment surpluses and deficits created as a result of these unilateral NCB processes are then balanced out via the so-called Target2 system (Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross settlement Express Transfer system).
Generally speaking, the system ensures that all NCBs carrying surpluses channel them over to NCBs carrying deficits.
The problem is that since the crisis unfolded, the number of NCBs handling deficits has started to outnumber the number of NCBs holding surpluses.
One particular NCB — the Bundesbank — has become the key provider of funds to the whole eurosystem.
一特別的NCB - 德國央行 - 已成為整個歐元體系資金的關鍵提供者。
In order to fund these loans, the Bundesbank sold its holdings of German assets. Asshown in Figure 1, between December 2007 and September 2011 the central banks of the GIIPS increased their loans to domestic financial institutions by nearly €300 billion. In contrast, the stock of gross German assets in the Bundesbank balance sheet fell sharply to its lowest level in history.The Bundesbank having to sell its gold to fund banking liquidity??? That will make Merkel sit up and take notice.
The ominous sign – which might set the stage for Act Two in the unfolding Eurozone drama –
is the fact that the Bundesbank will soon exhaust the stock of securities that it can sell to fund further loans to the Eurosystem. At that point, the Bundesbank could sell its gold or increase the deposits it takes from the private sector.
是那事實即央行將很快耗盡手上的證券股票，它可以出售以進一步資助貸款給歐元系統。在這一點上，央行可能出售它的黃金或增加它從私營部門取得的存款。
Most likely, however, the Bundesbank will face strong pressure from the German public against such action.
急性抵押品危機
An acute collateral crunch
Kaminska explained the collateral crunch problem in ECB as Pawnbroker of Last Resort:
While soaring Libor rates were a key indicator of market stress during the credit crunch, the best indicator of collateral crunch intensity is instead the repo rate. The lower the rate, the greater the crunch.
The wider the spread between Libor and the secured (repo) rate, the greater the general distress in the market. The following chart reveals just how good an indicator of general market stress it is:
[W]hile the ECB’s haircut policy might have been seen as prudent at the time, in a single monetary union — where markets are already reflecting preferences for certain types of Eurozone debt — having the ECB treat government collateral differently only intensifes the phenomenon.While some of the technical steps the ECB took last week took some pressure of the money markets, they weren't enough. See Nomura on Draghi’s failure to address the collateral problem. Kaminska wrote that bank funding has a greater effect on the perception of the European sovereign solvency [emphasis added]:
The ECB should, by all definitions, treat all government debt the same.
[T]here are many reasons to think that the trend towards ‘quality’ collateralised funding is having as much of an impact on the valuation of bonds in both private and central bank funding markets, as the perception that European sovereigns might be insolvent.This has the makings of a Lehman moment for the European banking system. Here are some of the signs of a imminent bank collapse. First, I would continue to watch for signs of stress in the money market, such as the LIBOR vs. the secured (repo) spread. For investors without access to Bloomberg and other services with money market data, here is a quick and dirty way of watching for signs of rising stress in the banking system.
歐元銀行業天啟的四騎士
The Four Horsemen of the Euro Banking Apocalypse
Watch the stocks of stressed banks. There are four that appear to be under severe stress from a list that I detailed previously here. The first is Commerzbank (CRZBF.PK), which has already undercut its Lehman Crisis 2009 lows and is in the prospect of testing its recent lows as another support level. If that low doesn't hold, then that may be one of the first Signs of the European Banking Apocalypse.
For more please read:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/313085-is-the-eurozone-banking-system-about-to-collapse
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