Global warming theory in chaos after report finds increased solar activity may COOL the Earth
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 12:53 PM on 7th October 2010
Translation by Autumnson Blog
A puzzling discovery has raised a question mark over the Sun's impact on climate change and could provide ammunition for sceptics, it was revealed today.
一個令人困惑的發現已升出一個問號，在太陽對氣候變化的影響和可能提供彈藥給懷疑論者，它今天被透露。
Until now it has been assumed that less activity from the Sun equates to less warming of the Earth.
到現在為止它已被假設，太陽較少的活動相等於較少的地球變暖。
But the new research, which focuses on a three-year snapshot of time between 2004 and 2007, suggests the opposite may be true.
但新的研究，聚焦在由2004年至2007年的三年快相時間，卻提出相反的才可能是真的。
As solar activity waned at the end of one of the Sun's 11-year cycles, the new data show the amount of energy reaching the Earth at visible wavelengths rose rather than fell.
由於太陽活動在太陽的11年週期結束時減弱，新的數據顯示能量到達地球的數量，在可見的波長是上升而不是下降。
Several giant sunspots crossing the face of the Sun. The amount of solar activity may have negligible effects on the Earth's climate
幾粒巨大的太陽黑子穿越太陽的面，太陽活動的數量對地球的氣候可能有微不足道的影響
Scientists believe it may also be possible that during the next up-turn of the cycle, when sun activity increases, there might be a cooling effect at the Earth's surface.
科學家相信它可能亦有可能是，在下一次轉上的週期當太陽活動增加，有可能於地球表面出現降溫作用。
A further twist arises from the fact that over the past century, overall solar activity has been increasing.
進一步的扭曲源於一個事實，在過去的世紀裡，總體太陽活動已在不斷增加。
If the new findings apply to long as well as short time periods, this could translate into a small degree of cooling rather than the slight warming effect shown in existing climate models. It would effectively turn received wisdom on its head.
如果新的發現應用於長期以及短期的時段，這可能轉化為一小程度的降溫而不是輕微的變暖影響，展示在現存的氣候模型。它將有效地淋漓盡致改變已有的智慧。
Sceptics are likely to say the results further undermine the reliability of climate change science, especially with regard to solar effects.
懷疑論者可能會說，結果進一步削弱氣候變化科學的可靠性，特別是在太陽能的影響。
Professor Joanna Haigh, from Imperial College London, who led the study, said: 'These results are challenging what we thought we knew about the Sun's effect on our climate.
英國倫敦帝國學院的喬安娜黑格教授，由她領導研究，說：'這些結果都在挑戰我們以為我們知道太陽在我們的氣候的影響。
However, they only show us a snapshot of the Sun's activity and its behaviour over the three years of our study could be an anomaly.
然而，她們只向我們展示一張太陽活動的快照，和它的行為超過我們研究的三年，可能是一個反常現象。
'We cannot jump to any conclusions based on what we have found during this comparatively short period and we need to carry out further studies to explore the sun's activity and the patterns that we have uncovered on longer timescales.
'我們不能妄下任何結論，依據我們在這比較短的時期所發現的東西，和我們需要以較長的時間表進行進一步的研究，以探索我們已發現的太陽活動和模式。
The rising sun lights up the sky as low-lying clouds sit along the horizonin Wyoming. Researchers have warned against jumping to any conclusions based on what the have found during this 'comparatively short period'
上升中的太陽照亮天空當低窪雲沿坐在懷俄明州的地平線，研究人員警告，反對過早下任何結論依據在這'比較短的時期'中他們已發現的東西。
'However, if further studies find the same pattern over a longer period of time, this could suggest that we may have overestimated the sun's role in warming the planet, rather than underestimating it.'
Speaking at a news briefing in London, she denied that it would fuel scepticism about climate change research.
'I think it doesn't give comfort to the climate sceptics at all,' she said.
'It may suggest that we don't know that much about the Sun. It casts no aspersions at all upon the climate models.'
The research, published in the journal Nature, is based on data from a satellite called SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) that has been measuring the Sun's energy output at X-ray, ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared wavelengths.
Prof Haigh's team found that, above an altitude of 28 miles, concentrations of ozone in the atmosphere increased as total solar output decreased.
How global temperatures have risen steadily since records began in 1880
全球氣溫如何穩定上升自1880年記錄開始以來
How Surface and satellite temperatures have varied over the past 35 years
表面和衛星溫度如何在過去 35年有所不同
The ozone rise accompanied a steep fall in levels of ultraviolet radiation.
Closer to the ground, an increase in visible radiation caused heating of the lower atmosphere.
'At face value, the data seem incredibly important,' Michael Lockwood, a space physicist at the University of Reading, told Nature.com.
'If solar activity is out of phase with solar radiative forcing, it could change our understanding of how processes in the troposphere and stratosphere act to modulate Earth's climate.'
'The findings could prove very significant when it comes to understanding, and quantifying, natural climate fluctuations,' he added.
'But no matter how you look at it, the Sun's influence on current climate change is at best a small natural add-on to man-made greenhouse warming.'
'All the evidence is that the vast majority of warming is anthropogenic. It might be that the solar part isn't quite working the way we thought it would, but it is certainly not a seismic rupture of the science.'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1318425/Global-warming-theory-chaos-Increased-solar-activity-COOL-Earth.html
研究顯示：太陽活動減弱反而會使地球變熱
2010年10月08日08:22
來源：人民網-《人民日報》
據新華社倫敦１０月７日電 （記者黃?）太陽是使地球變熱的根源，但一項最新研究顯示，在太陽活動減弱的時候，地球溫度反而會因此上升。這一與直覺不符的研究結果將幫助科研人員修正過去的地球氣候模型，更好地了解氣候變化。
英國帝國理工學院等機構研究人員在７日出版的《自然》雜志上報告說，他們分析了美國“太陽輻射與氣候實驗”衛星在２００４年到２００７年間收集的數據。
研究顯示，在太陽活動減弱的同時，太陽輻射的能量分布也發生了變化，紫外線減弱而可見光增強，而可見光會更多地抵達地表。最終結果是被地球大氣層吸收的能量反而變多，地球因此變得更熱。
研究人員喬安娜·黑格說，這一結果與過去看法不同，因此關於太陽輻射如何影響地球氣候變化的相關模型可能要作一些修改。不過她表示，這只是一個太陽活動周期內的數據，其有效性還有待今后觀測的進一步証實。
至於是否會有人利用相關結論來否認人類活動造成全球變暖，研究人員表示，太陽活動呈周期性，有減弱就有增強，如果活動減弱時地球變熱，那麼活動增強時也會有變冷效果。在近一個世紀裡，太陽活動總體上是增強的，那麼相應的總體上有一定的變冷效果，而地球氣溫在這段時間裡是上升的，恰恰說明了人類活動造成了巨大影響。
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