軍方學者：美或襲擊南沙 中國應儘早常態化部署戰機
2020-07-25
近期中美之間摩擦不斷，解放軍大校、新華社解放軍分社《世界軍事》雜誌總編緝陳虎日前發文稱，美軍雙航母滯留印太，轟炸機進駐關島，偵察機在中國周邊高頻率偵察，美國的目的已經不僅僅是示威訓練，更多的已經是在備戰，中國控制的南中國海島礁已經到了可能被襲擊的緊要關頭，中方應儘早在南沙群島三個建有機場的島礁常態化部署戰鬥機。
中國政策科學研究會高級研究員、軍事文化研究會特聘軍事專家王雲飛此前曾在三策智庫發表文章說，目前看，特朗普政府很可能劍走偏鋒，在今年11月以前突然決策在南中國海挑起與中國的軍事衝突。王雲飛分析，當前，中美關係急轉直下，以要求關閉中國駐休士頓總領館為標誌，美國反華浪潮到達了一個新的高潮，尤其是在雙方處在軍事對抗前沿的南中國海，美軍艦機威脅動作頻頻，已經到了有史以來最有可能對中國島礁發動襲擊的嚴峻時期。
文章認為，美軍近來不斷加大在南中國海的艦機活動。RC-135、E-8C、P-8A、RC-12X等各型偵察機六七月間幾乎不間斷地到南中國海偵察，已經到達了戰前戰術技術偵察的密度；B-1B、B-52H轟炸機多次抵達南中國海對中國島礁模擬攻擊，應該已經形成了對中國島礁襲擊的具體作戰方案。雙航母編隊僅在7月就在南中國海進行了兩次軍演，加之以前編隊屬艦多次在南中國海搞「航行自由行動」，如果美軍艦艇編隊早有對中國島礁襲擊腹案，那一點也不意外。
中國目前在南沙群島駐守的島礁分別是美濟礁、永暑礁、渚碧礁、華陽礁、赤瓜礁、南薰礁和東門礁，並控制著黃岩島。
王雲飛認為，美軍如對上述島礁襲擊，最有可能的是選擇黃岩島。該島沒有人員駐守，襲擊後引起的外交衝突相對較輕。其次有可能襲擊建有機場的美濟礁、永暑礁和渚碧礁。襲擊上述三個島礁，對中方造成的破壞大，引起的國際關注程度高，在美國國內形成的政治效果明顯。
他認為美方發動襲擊的平臺有可能是B-1B、B-52H轟炸機，因為這兩款轟炸機可以做到快打快撤，如果從菲律賓中部的蘇祿海由東向西方向或從麻六甲向東北方向突襲，中方在南沙島礁沒有部署戰機的情況下，很難對美轟炸機進行空中反擊。其次有可能用航母編隊中的大黃蜂艦載機攜帶空對地導彈或用艦艇發射戰斧巡航導彈進行襲擊。
文章建議，中方有必要儘早進行軍事規劃，在南沙三個建有機場的島礁常態化部署戰鬥機，中國航母到南中國海特別是南中國海中南部方向戰備巡邏也可提上日程，中國空軍在巴士海峽方向有岸基戰機可對從該方向來襲的美軍轟炸機形成一定威脅，如果在南中國海中南部也能形成對美軍轟炸機的威脅，有助於降低美軍轟炸機的整體威脅程度。在西沙，更有條件、有必要進行戰機、防空導彈的常態化部署。
面對日趨緊張的南中國海局勢，中國軍隊前天宣佈將於7月25日至8月2日在雷州半島以西的南中國海海域組織實彈打靶。這份由解放軍九五一八〇部隊發佈的封海公告稱：「此次打靶覆蓋範圍廣、彈藥威力大，擅自出海被誤炸誤傷的危險極大。」
分析人士指出，中國軍方在海上進行軍演或實彈射擊，一般都由海事部門發佈禁航通告。這次實彈打靶由解放軍發佈封海公告，十分罕見，顯示中方也在加緊備戰，應對最壞局面。
（聯合早報）
China: Military Experts Urge Beijing to Prepare for War with U.S.
Wang further warns that U.S. President Donald J. Trump is likely to initiate a military conflict in the South China Sea region before the November 3 U.S. presidential election, speculating that "stirring up external frictions, especially military conflicts with China, will help the incumbent president for his re-election campaign."
The leaders of China's Communist Party (CCP) also see that nothing was done by anyone, including the U.S., to stop China's grab of Hong Kong this year -- 27 years early. This paralysis of the West must have looked to the CCP like a green light to keep on grabbing.
China, however, has been the party with the hostile intent, not only with Hong Kong, but also with an attack on northern India, an extensive military base build-up in the South China Sea, an attempted appropriation of the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands and a "fishing fleet" of 250 vessels showing up near the Galapagos Islands, off Ecuador. Another recent move from Beijing was to conduct live-fire targeting drills in the South China Sea from July 25 through August 2.
If China continues its aggressive posture toward the U.S.-allied free states of Asia, especially Taiwan, a direct confrontation between the Chinese and U.S. militaries in the South China may indeed be necessary.
Chinese military journalists are publicly urging the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to prepare immediately for an attack by U.S. forces in the South China Sea. One expert at Zhejiang University's National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Shi Xiaoqin, claims that the U.S. is deliberately trying to provoke China. They also suggest the regime reinforce Chinese installations on reefs claimed by China.
If this analysis gains traction by Chinese political and military leaders, U.S. military commanders in the South China Sea should plan for the possibility that China might initiate hostilities in keeping with its doctrine of preemptive retaliation, a seeming attempt falsely to claim "self-defense."
One writer suggests that the PLA should immediately move fighter aircraft to Chinese air bases in the Spratly Islands at Fiery Cross, Subi Reef, and Mischief Reef. He also boldly claims that the augmented presence of U.S. naval and air assets in the South China Sea is no longer just a show of force by America.
Chen Hu, a Chinese military journalist, also asserts that the U.S. is now intent on provoking a conflict and is preparing for battle. Chen claims that the return of B1 bombers to Guam and continued deployment of two U.S. aircraft carrier groups in the South China Sea, despite the conclusion of military exercises, is supposedly a sign of Washington's aggressive intent. Chen suggests that recent U.S. "Freedom of Navigation" maneuvers and the high number of U.S. surveillance collection missions along the Chinese coast is additional proof of American attack planning. Former PLA officer Wang Yunfei and naval equipment expert suggests that flights by American RC-135, E-8c, and RC-12X surveillance aircraft equate to "pre-battle strategic technical surveillance." As the joke goes from the children's playground: "It all started when he hit me back."
Wang further warns that U.S. President Donald J. Trump is likely to initiate a military conflict in the South China Sea region before the November 3 U.S. presidential election, speculating that "stirring up external frictions, especially military conflicts with China, will help the incumbent president for his re-election campaign."
The leaders of China's Communist Party (CCP) also see that nothing was done by anyone, including the U.S., to stop China's grab of Hong Kong this year -- 27 years early. This paralysis of the West must have looked to the CCP like a green light to keep on grabbing.
Wang even lays out his analysis on particular avenues of approach by which U.S. bombers might attack their Chinese targets. Wang, now a Chinese naval specialist, writes that the U.S. will probably ship-launch Tomahawk Cruise against Chinese bases in the South China Sea. He further specifies that the PLA should deploy China's own aircraft carriers in the south central region of the sea, as the best strategy to counter any U.S. assault. He adds that China must also deploy fighter jets and air defense missiles on various Chinese reefs.
Wang singled out the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea's Paracel Island Chain as the most likely initial piece of real estate that the U.S. might seek to seize. The Scarborough (Huangyan) Shoal/Reef is claimed by both China and the Republic of the Philippines. Perhaps one reason why China might expect that Scarborough Shoal is a likely target is that the U.S. wants to re-cement military agreements with the Philippines that would allow American military assets access to Clark Air Force Base, Subic Bay Naval Base and other newer facilities. U.S. support for Manila's claim to the Scarborough Shoal against China's might be sufficient to convince the mercurial president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, to patch up relations with the U.S.
Chinese writer Zheng Hao, who assesses that it is possible that U.S.-Chinese tensions in the South China Sea could escalate into a "hot war," cites U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's July 13 statement that the South China Sea is "not China's maritime empire" as indicative of the Trump Administration's hostile intent. Zheng appears to be especially concerned about the July 7 U.S.-Japan naval exercise, which included an operation by the U.S. aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan and two warships of the Japanese Maritime Defense Forces. Zheng laments that the 2018 draft of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea has not yet been signed by the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China.
One hope to avoid or at least postpone an imminent clash in the South China Sea is for China and the U.S. to activate the crisis prevention apparatus established in November 2014. This diplomatic device includes a Memorandum of Understanding on notification of military activities and rules of behavior designed to keep air and naval encounters peaceful. So far, there is no public acknowledgement that either China or the U.S. is employing the crisis prevention mechanism. One recent sign of efforts by both sides to avoid a military incident was the Pentagon's August 7 announcement that U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and his Chinese counterpart, Minister of Defense Wei Fenghe, held a 90-minute teleconference last week.
China, however, has been the party with the hostile intent, not only with Hong Kong, but also with an attack on northern India, an extensive military base build-up in the South China Sea, an attempted appropriation of the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands and a "fishing fleet" of 250 vessels showing up near the Galapagos Islands, off Ecuador. Another recent move from Beijing was to conduct live-fire targeting drills in the South China Sea from July 25 through August 2. The announcement of this exercise was promulgated by the PLA and not, as is usual, by the Chinese government's maritime administration. If China continues its aggressive posture toward the U.S.-allied free states of Asia, especially Taiwan, a direct confrontation between the Chinese and U.S. militaries in the South China may indeed be necessary.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16336/china-military-war
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