高盛預測：2012和2013年的世界將會像這樣

高盛預測：2012和2013年的世界將會像這樣
GOLDMAN: This Is What The World Will Be Like In 2012 And 2013
Eric Platt |
Dec. 1, 2011, 8:36 AM
Translation by Autumnson Blog

Goldman Sachs is out with its first predictions for how 2012 and 2013 will shape up, and the news isn't all that thrilling.
高盛出了它對2012年和2013年將如何形成的首次預測，而消息並不全是那般驚心動魄。
Led by Francesco Garzarelli in London and Dominic Wilson in New York, the team set out to forecast what markets, currencies, commodities and even central bank policies would be.
由倫敦的Francesco Garzarelli和紐約的多米尼克威爾遜領導，小隊成立以預測市場、貨幣、商品和甚至是央行政策將是什麼。
Their estimates are not so rosy. Rather, they paint a somber picture of Europe while world GDP growth falls further from earlier estimates.
他們的估計並不是很美好，反而，他們描繪一幅歐洲的憂鬱圖畫，儘管世界的GDP增長進一步從早前的估計下降。

發達經濟體增長緩慢多兩年
Slow Growth For Two More Years in Developed Economies

The thread holding the global economic picture together will remain one of slow, and in some cases negative, growth. Headwinds from austerity measures which have hit government spending will hit the U.S. and peer nations in Europe. Add in private-sector deleveraging, and a banking system that is on the cusp of further layoffs, and its not too bright. Goldman also sees high unemployment plaguing the advanced nation labor forces.

Source: Goldman Sachs

新興市場面對挑戰將仍保持彈性
Emerging Markets Will Remain Resilient to the Challenges

ssues that are facing developed nations will not move ot emerging markets. Inflation will begin to ease and economic policy will shift further towards prevention of slow growth. That theme has already proven itself at the end of 2011, as China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, cut reserve requirements by 50 basis points at the nation's largest institutions.

Source: Goldman Sachs

歐洲的危機將損傷全球增長
Europe's Crisis Will Mar Global Growth

The crisis that has enveloped Europe will not disappear at the turn of the year. Rather, Goldman believes it will continue to hold back global growth. The investment bank is decreasing world GDP forecasts by 20 basis points to 3.2% for 2012. Low visibility of a European action plan will continue to negatively effect other markets that are reliant on the continent — particularly banking sectors laden with debt from the region.

Source: Goldman Sachs

歐元區經濟衰退正變得越來越有可能
Recession in the Euro-area is Becoming Increasingly Likely

Goldman Sachs now predicts a baseline GDP decline of 0.5% starting this quarter through the start of 2012, which will lead to a full 0.8% contraction. That compares to some of the hardest times during the regions 1992-93 recession. Specifically, the bank now expects mild recessions in the United Kingdom, Scandinavia and parts of Central and Eastern Europe. Expansion in 2013 looks modest at 0.7%, keeping to the tune of slow growth when there is growth.

Source: Goldman Sachs

股票市場將會有十分困難的一年
Equity Markets Will Have An Extremely Difficult Year

Over the coming three to six months, Goldman economists predict the Tokyo Topix, Stoxx Europe 600 and MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index to all decline. Europe will be hardest hit, seeing equities shedding 16% of their value before slowly returning to levels seen today. The S&P 500 is expected to remain tepid, moving in a small range over the coming twelve months.

Source: Goldman Sachs

在亞洲，股票將會有較佳表現
In Asia, Equities Will Fare Better

While the investment firm shirks European equities, it believes non-Japan Asia has the largest upside potential, possibly to the tune of 14% by year's end 2012. Goldman estimates earnings per share will grow 5.6% and 12.0% for the region in 2012 and 2013, respectively. The analysts reason that low current valuations, coupled with a still favorable forecast for China will provide the boost.

Source: Goldman Sachs

主權債務的收益率將逐步開始上升
Sovereign Debt Yields Will Gradually Begin Rising

Goldman expects that monetary policy will remain in its current iteration (read that as easy) and that inflation will be moderate. The bank believes U.S. 10-year treasuries will stay above 2% and ultimately move up to 3.3% by the end of 2013. Germany and the U.K. will also see increasing yields, while the former nation will lower its policy rates by 30 basis points.

Source: Goldman Sachs

貨幣走勢將削弱美元
Currency Movements Will Weaken the Dollar

In currencies, Goldman Sachs analysts predict a substantial weakening of the U.S. dollar as investors move to a global portfolio of bills. Specifically, the dollar will fall against the Mexican peso (to 12.50 pesos per dollar), the Chinese yuan (to 6.13 yuan per dollar) and the British pound (to 0.58 pounds per dollar). Policy action will continue to influence currency markets, which will likely benefit Asian countries like China, Taiwan and India.

Source: Goldman Sachs

原油將達新紀錄水平
Crude Will Hit Record Levels

Fragility in energy markets as producers have difficulty expanding, will constrain resources and lead to higher oil prices. Goldman expects this to be the case so long that emerging markets continue to grow and require greater global resources. At current price levels, demand outstrips supply. "The oil market continues to set crude oil prices too low to clear the tight physical markets, leading oil inventories to reach exceptionally low levels for the time of year," lead analyst Francesco Garzarelli writes.

Source: Goldman Sachs

決策者將採取非凡行動
Policy Makers Will Take Extraordinary Actions

The announcement that the Federal Reserve is working with other central banks to lower swap prices aside, Goldman Sachs sees large moves in a number of developed economies. "We expect QE3 in the US, additional Gilt purchases in the UK and a reasonable chance of further Swiss intervention," GS lead Garzarelli says.

Source: Goldman Sachs

六種交易高盛說要做的(下)
The six trades Goldman says to make(below)

高盛：這裡是我們給2012年的首要6種交易
GOLDMAN: Here Are Our Top 6 Trades For 2012

Buy Protection on the iTraxx Europe Xover Index
在iTraxx歐洲 XOVER指數購買保護

Target: 950bp

Stop: 680bp

"We recommend going short the high yield corporate bond market in Europe by buying protection on the iTraxx Xover index. We expect this trade to benefit from the following considerations:

The credit quality of European non-financial firms has not recovered to its pre-crisis level
Tightening credit conditions in Europe
Enormous pressures on fiscal budgets"
Source: Goldman Sachs

沽空10年的德國債券
Short 10 year German Bunds

Target: 2.80%

Stop: 2.00%

"Short 10-yr German Bunds for a target of 2.8% (open at 2.3%) and a potential return of +4.5%, stop 2.0%
On our long-held central view, funding pressures and the deterioration of the economic outlook will act as a
‘forcing mechanism’, leading to an agreement on a deeper fiscal integration of the Euro area, possibly in stages, involving budgetary rules supported by effective sanctions."

Source: Goldman Sachs

歐元/瑞郎長倉
Long EUR/CHF

Target: 1.35

Stop: 1.2

"With risky asset correlations strongly affecting FX markets, it is difficult to find exchange rate crosses that offer asymmetric expected returns. One strategy that we have been advocating to mitigate this problem is to look for those currencies that are strongly affected by policymakers. The Swiss National Bank is currently committed to keeping the EUR/CHF exchange rate above 1.20. This policy of quantitative easing is consistent with the rapid slowing of the Swiss economy and deflationary pressures."

Source: Goldman Sachs

長加拿大股票（S＆P TSX）VS日本股市（日經），不對沖外匯
Long Canadian Equities (S&P TSX) vs Japanese Equities (Nikkei), FX unhedged

Target: 120

Stop: 90

"In equities, we recommend a long position in Canadian equities via the S&P TSX relative to Japanese equities via the Nikkei, FX unhedged. ... We like this pair trade for ... a bullish view on the commodity complex, and energy prices in particular, the Canadian equity market ought to be a clear beneficiary given its significant energy and materials weights."

Source: Goldman Sachs

長一籃子的全球再平衡貨幣（人民幣、馬幣 vs 英鎊、美元）
Long a Global Rebalancing Basket (CNY, MYR vs. GBP, USD)

Target: 107

Stop: 98

"Large current account surpluses, and related signs of excessive FX reserve accumulation, are an important feature of persisting global imbalances. In particular in Asia, a number of countries record large surpluses in combination with heavily managed exchange rates and persistent inflation pressures. The currencies of these countries remain strong candidates for additional nominal appreciation. The CNY and MYR are typical examples, with the latter adding commodity exposure to the appreciation pressures."

Source: Goldman Sachs

長布倫特原油石油2012年7月期貨
Long July 2012 ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures

Target: $120

Stop: $100

"As the downside risk from the European debt crisis has intensified, so has the oil market’s incentive to draw down inventories ahead of the threatened global economic recession. In particular, in its attempt to price in the potential that the European debt crisis may trigger a new global economic recession, the oil market continues to set crude oil prices too low to clear the tight physical markets, leading oil inventories to reach exceptionally low levels for the time of year."

Source: Goldman Sachs

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-10-things-that-will-happen-in-2012-2011-11?op=1#ixzz1fIeJvTxQ


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