The Hindenburg Omen Indicates Stock Market Crash is Coming
Saturday, August 14,2010
Activist Post
On Thursday August 12, the US equities market triggered a confirmed technical indicator known as the “Hindenburg Omen." This omen, as you may have guessed, suggests that a stock market crash is on the way. However, it doesn’t mean just any crash -- according to Albert Edwards, a London-based strategist at Societe Generale SA, the indicator means “a savage equity downturn is imminent."
8月12日週四，美國股市引發一確認的技術指標被稱為“興登堡凶兆。”正如你可能已經猜到這預兆提出一次的股市崩潰已在路上。然而，它並不意味僅是任何崩潰 - 根據一位倫敦作總部的法國興業銀行分析師艾伯特愛德華茲，那指標的意思是“一殘酷的股票向下已迫在眉睫。”
The level of attention and significance given to this omen is truly unparalleled in the world of technical analysis, and for good reason.
在技術分析世界，關注的水平和給予這凶兆的意義是真正的無與倫比，並有很好的理由。
-Every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen.
-自1985年以來每一次紐約證券交易所崩潰，都已被興登堡凶兆處在前面。
-Based on historical stats, the probability of a panic sellout is 41%, while the probability of a major stock market crash is 24%.
-基於歷史統計，恐慌性拋售的概率為 41％，而一次大股災的概率為 24％。
-Out of the previous 25 confirmed signals, only 8% (two) have failed to predict at least a mild decline in equities markets.
-出自之前的25個確認信號，只有8％（2個）未能預測在股票市場至少有一次輕微下降。
-The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen is 77%, and usually takes place within the next 40 days.
- 一次移動的概率大於 5％的向下，在確認興登堡凶兆後是 77％，及通常發生在接下來的40天。
As a result, the Hindenburg Omen is indeed the most feared indicator for Wall Street bulls. However, when the infamous omen starts showing itself two times in two days, that’s when things can get really scary.
結果是，興登堡凶兆對華爾街牛派事實是最可怕的指標。但是，當臭名昭著的凶兆開始顯示它自己在兩天內兩次，那是時候事情可以變得真的可怕。
Thursday, August 12, was indeed a Hindenburg Omen; 100% confirmed by technical analysts worldwide. I’ve come across news stories in English, French, German, Italian, and Portuguese all proclaiming the arrival of the dreaded Omen. Suffice to say -- it’s a big deal covered by every major financial outlet, and nobody in the industry doubts its significance.
However just one day before this on Wednesday, August 11, the omen almost happened as well. To trigger a full blown omen, the number of 52-week highs, and 52-week lows must both be greater than 2.2% of the total issues traded that day. There are several other criteria that must be met as well, but that is the #1 and most important factor. Simply out, it shows that the tug of war between bulls and bears is at extreme and unsustainable levels.
Looking at the NYSE August 11, 67 stocks made new 52-week highs. Had this number been 69, the Hindenburg Omen would have officially triggered that day.
Just 2 stocks prevented the Omen from appearing on Wednesday. A few analysts took note, but there was not much of a reaction to this, as technical indicators either are, or aren’t confirmed. However, the very next day the Omen confirmed itself without a doubt.
What we have here is very close to seeing two Omens in back-to-back trading. If that Wednesday triggered a full blown signal, I have no doubt we’d be witnessing a media frenzy hyping up back-to-back market crashing omens. But just 2 NYSE stocks managed to prevent this event.
While I do follow the rules of technical analysis to a great degree, I find it more than unsettling that just 2 NYSE stocks can impact the broader market to this extent. Looking at the markets as a whole, these 2 stocks that prevented the Omen from triggering are borderline irrelevant. As far as I’m concerned the Aug 11 omen was close enough, that I’m staying out of equities for the next 40 days.
http://www.activistpost.com/2010/08/hindenburg-omen-indicates-stock-market.html
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