2011年2月15日星期二

時代週刋對我們的機械人未來的報告:五項不可思議的預測

時代週刋對我們的機械人未來的報告:五項不可思議的預測
TIME's report on our robotic future: 5 incredible predictions

Our species may become obsolete by 2045, says the magazine ominously, overtaken by artificial intelligence
我們的物種可能在2045年成為過時,該雜誌不吉利地說,被人工智能爬頭

posted on February 11, 2011, at 4:37 PM
Translation by Autumnson Blog
According to futurologist Raymond Kurzweil, robots will advance well beyond the role of helpful sidekick by mid-century. Photo: Corbis
據未來學家庫日韋爾雷蒙德,機械人在本世紀中葉將遠遠超越有用助手的角色。圖片:Corbis

The Singularity is coming. That's the belief of Raymond Kurzweil, a futurist and engineer profiled by Lev Grossman in this week's TIME magazine. Kurzweil's particular focus is predicting the point — known as the Singularity — at which the progress of machines will supersede that of humans. After decades of research, Kurzweil thinks he's finally put a date on it. Here, the five most extreme predictions highlighted in TIME's profile:
奇特事物來了,那是一位未來學家和工程師雷蒙德庫茲韋爾的信念,由時代雜誌列夫格羅斯曼在這一周的剖白。庫茲韋爾的特別重點是預測那點 - 被稱為奇點 - 在那機器的進展將代替人類。經過幾十年的研究,庫茲威爾認為他終於把一個日期放上。在這裡,亮點了五個最極端的預測在時代的概況:

1. 電腦將會在2020年代結束時像人類般思想
1. Computers will think like humans do by the end of the 2020s
The way Kurzweil sees it, technological progress will balloon in the 2020s. By midway through that decade, we will be able to reverse-engineer the human brain — that is, figure out exactly how it works. By the end of the 2020s, "computers will be capable of human-level intelligence." That means they'll be able to emulate "whatever it is our brains are doing when they create consciousness."

2。奇點將發生在2045年
2. The Singularity will occur in 2045
In that year, artificial intelligence will be so dominant and abundant that people will either merge with machines to "become super-intelligent cyborgs," or we'll "scan our consciousnesses into computers and live inside them as software, forever, virtually." Another option: The robots will turn on us, in a Terminator-style twist.
在那年,人工智能將是如此佔優勢和充裕,人們要么與機器合併“成為超級智能生化機械人,”否則我們將“掃描我們的意識進入電腦,和住在內裡有如軟件,永遠虛擬地。”另一項選擇:機器人將開啟我們,在一個終結者款式的扭。

3. 奇點後,人類將變成“功能地永垂不朽”...
3. After the Singularity, humans will become "functionally immortal"...
"Singularitarians" like Kurzweil believe that human beings alive in 2045 will "wind up being functionally immortal." Not just because we'll be able to transfer our minds into computers or robots, but also because the rise of "regenerative medicine" will repair the "damage" of old age. Fellow Singularitarian Dr. Aubrey de Grey describes it as a bit like preserving a "vintage car."

4. ...而且我們將能夠使死者復生
4. ... And we will be able to bring the dead back to life

Kurzweil envisages a world in which biotechnology and nanotechnology are so advanced that the human genome "becomes just so much code to be bug-tested and optimized." Extending your life infinitely becomes reality, as does resurrecting failed organic material. "Death loses its sting once and for all. Kurzweil hopes to bring his dead father back to life."
庫茲威爾設想的世界中,生物科技和納米科技都是如此先進,因此人類基因組“變得衹是那麼多的代碼會被錯誤測試和優化。”無限延伸你的生命成為現實,正如復活失敗的有機物質般。“死亡從此失去它的刺,庫茲威爾希望把他死去的父親復活過來。“

5. 噢,和人類智能將征服宇宙
5. Oh, and human intelligence will conquer the universe
Once humanity has melded with machine, says Kurzweil, we will "light out for the edges of space as intergalactic godlings." The rate of our scientific advances will become so rapid that "within a matter of centuries, human intelligence will have re-engineered and saturated all the matter in the universe." And with that, we will have cracked the meaning of life.

http://theweek.com/article/index/212092/times-report-on-our-robotic-future-5-incredible-predictions

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