'Libya war could last 30 years': Armed forces minister's extraordinary admissionBy Tim Shipman
Last updated at 10:27 AM on 23rd March 2011
Translation by Autumnson Blog
-Plans for Nato takeover of mission 'are in chaos'
北約接管任務的計劃'混亂'
-Farce as Arab jets almost run out of fuel
阿拉伯戰機幾乎耗盡燃料是鬧劇
-Pro-war MPs out of step with public mood
支持戰爭的國會議員與公眾的情緒不同步
Ministers admitted yesterday that they have no idea how long the military operation against Colonel Gaddafi could take.
昨天部長承認，他們沒主意針對卡扎菲上校的軍事行動需時多久。
Asked for an estimate, Armed Forces Minister Nick Harvey said: 'How long is a piece of string? We don't know how long this is going to go on.
當被問到作出估計，武裝力量部部長尼克哈維說：'一根繩有多長？我們不知道這會繼續多久。
'We don't know if this is going to result in a stalemate. We don't know if his capabilities are going to be degraded quickly. Ask me again in a week.'
'我們不知道這會否以僵局結束，我們不知道他的能力將被迅速貶降，一個星期再問我。'
Defiant: Colonel Gaddafi appeared on Libyan state TV to declare he is ready for a drawn-out conflict違抗：卡扎菲上校出現在利比亞國家電視台，宣布他準備好一次曠日持久的衝突
Gaddafi (circled) speaks to the crowd in Bab El Azizia, which lies in the southern suburbs of the capital卡扎菲（圓圈）在首都南部郊區巴布薩爾瓦多 Azizia對群眾講話
Supporting the dictator: A man clutches a poster of Gaddafi to his chest as he passes a Tripoli military site damaged by coalition air strikes支持獨裁者：一個男人抓住一張卡扎菲的海報對著他的胸部，當他經過一個被空襲聯盟破壞的的黎波里軍事地點
The comments come as a defiant Muammar Gaddafi made a speech on Libyan state television last night in which he claimed said he was ready for entrenched conflict, saying; 'In the short term, we'll beat them, in the long term, we'll beat them.'
評論出現當違抗的卡扎菲昨晚在利比亞國家電視台宣稱，他準備作根深蒂固的衝突，說;'在短期內，我們會打敗他們；在長遠來看，我們會擊敗他們。
The Libyan leader was said to have delivered the message to supporters at his residential compound near the capital Tripoli which was hit by an allied cruise missile on Sunday.
He denounced the 'unjust' action against his country and called those taking action against Libya as 'crazed fascists'.
And as Tory MPs expressed fears that the war could last for 30 years, Foreign Secretary William Hague added to fears of an expensive and open-ended commitment, saying that it was impossible to put a deadline on British involvement.
Mr Hague said: 'It's too early to speculate. It depends what happens one way or another.
'I don't think you can put a deadline or a time objective to that.
Destroyed: A crowd gathers to inspect the downed U.S. F-15 fighter bomber that crashed around 30 miles from the rebel stronghold of Benghazi被毀：人群聚集視察被擊落的美國F- 15戰鬥轟炸機，它墜毀在班加西約 30英里的叛軍據點
Wreck: Hundreds of locals gathered to look at the twisted and burnt out metal of the aircraft, but there was no animosity towards Allied forces by locals despite the gun attack遇難：數以百計的本地人聚集看扭曲和燒毀飛機的金屬，儘管有槍攻擊，但他們對盟軍的攻擊沒有敵意
'We need to do those things as long as it is necessary, and that will depend on how people react in Libya, the reaction of the Gaddafi regime, on so many factors.'
In a major speech last night, he added: 'We will continue to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973 until there is a complete and genuine ceasefire and an end to attacks on civilians.'
Liberal Democrat Mr Harvey went further than any minister yet in admitting that ground forces may be needed.
The UN resolution rules out an 'invasion' and an 'occupying force' but not ground force assistance to protect civilian lives.
'I don't think we would at this stage rule anything in or rule anything out,' Mr Harvey said.
'It's something that the twists and turns of the next few days and weeks will determine, what any individual country puts into this fray.
'I think it's a question of interpretation where the deployment of ground troops becomes the landing of an occupying force and I just don't think it's productive to speculate on that, but I cannot foresee it on any significant scale.'
The uncertainty over the length of the war comes after mixed messages from the Government over whether Colonel Gaddafi himself was a legitimate target.
On Monday, Downing Street was forced to publicly contradict claims by the Chief of the Defence Staff General Sir David Richards that the dictator could not be legally killed in a military strike.
Chancellor George Osborne sought to reassure the public that the cost of the war would not spiral out of control, saying it would be 'in the tens of millions not the hundreds of millions of pounds'.
He said it would be paid for from the Treasury's reserve, rather than the main defence budget.
The Government expects the air campaign, featuring RAF Typhoon and Tornado jets plus Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from the submarine Triumph, to cost around £3million a day, though the Daily Mail has calculated that the first three days cost nearly £6million each.
But costs and the length of the deployment will soar if either of those scenarios prompts a need for ground troops.
Other members of the military coalition have already decided not to stick with the mission for ever.
Norwegian foreign minister Jonas Gahr Støre last night announced that his country would put a time limit on its military involvement.
'We have made our planes available for three months,' he said.
Intelligence chiefs and diplomats are preparing a series of options papers for David Cameron spelling out what might happen next.
The scenarios they are examining include the possibility of a military stalemate between Gaddafi's forces and the opposition, where the rebels lack the firepower to seize the capital Tripoli.
They are also looking at the prospect that Libya will split in two, with a de facto separation between the Gaddafi-controlled West and the rebel-occupied East.
Tory MP Rory Stewart, a former diplomat who was deputy governor of an Iraqi province after the war there, warned that Britain could be sucked into a three-decade long imbroglio in the Middle East.
'Don't get sucked into Libya. I think the no-fly zone is the correct thing to do but this is a 20-to 30-year marathon with a very complicated region.'
Tory MP John Baron, one of only 13 MPs to vote against the war during a Commons debate on Monday night, also warned that the commitment could be open-ended.
'What is the exit strategy?' he asked.
'We risk being drawn into an ill-defined mission whilst civilian casualties rise.
'If there is a stalemate on the ground, are we simply going to walk away? These are questions that are not being answered at the moment, and I think they should be.'
Lord Browne, the former chairman of oil giant BP, which did deals with Gaddafi's regime, predicted that the conflict would drag on.
He said: 'I have a sense that everything I have seen of him [Gaddafi] is that he is someone who will stick around to the last possible moment.'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1369019/Libya-war-30-years-Ministers-extraordinary-admission.html
“奧巴馬第一戰”也許會是一場持久戰2011年03月24日07:22
來源：人民網
連續4天猛烈空襲，多國部隊在利比亞設立禁飛區的目標已經基本實現。但忠於卡扎菲的利比亞政府軍仍然控制著全國大部分地區。而奧巴馬政府在軍事干預利比亞問題上的模棱兩可，已在美國國內外遭到嚴重質疑。此間媒體分析認為，利比亞恐將成為繼伊拉克和阿富汗之后美國政府又一塊難以擺脫的燙手山芋。
奧巴馬的第一場戰爭
3月19日，當110多枚美國戰斧式巡航導彈在利比亞炸響時，美國《國家周刊》雜志毫不隱晦地將其稱為“奧巴馬的第一場戰爭”。如果說伊拉克戰爭和阿富汗戰爭是奧巴馬從其前任小布什總統手中被迫繼承下來的，那麼，軍事干預利比亞則是奧巴馬親自發動的第一場對外戰爭，並且是針對阿拉伯國家的又一場新的戰爭。與第二次伊拉克戰爭明顯不同的是，此次美國出兵是在聯合國安理會通過了旨在保護利比亞平民的1973號決議之后進行的。奧巴馬政府也一再強調美國參與軍事行動的合法性和有限性。但隨著聯軍摧毀一處卡扎菲使用的建筑，並將“禁飛區”從反對派的大本營班加西擴展到首都的黎波裡，這場軍事干預的性質正在發生變化。鑒於空襲造成大批平民傷亡的報道，早先主動要求聯合國干預利比亞局勢的阿拉伯國家聯盟（阿盟）也開始轉而質疑多國部隊的真實意圖。
盡管英法爭相充當急先鋒，奧巴馬政府極力保持低調，但美國毫無疑問是這場軍事行動的指揮核心。美國企業研究所學者亞瑟·赫曼指出，不要被英法的積極主動和美國的曖昧姿態所迷惑，隻有美國才具備確保這場戰役持續下去的條件和能力。到目前為止，多國部隊的行動統一由設在德國斯圖加特的美軍非洲司令部協調指揮，而且美國海軍艦艇在短短4天裡，已經向利比亞境內發射了160余枚戰斧式巡航導彈，基本上摧毀了卡扎菲政府軍的防空指揮和控制系統。據統計，截至22日，美軍戰機出動212架次，遠高於其他聯軍總和的124架次。美軍參謀長聯席會議主席邁克·馬倫稱，美軍評估認為，空襲取得了預期的效果，美軍的特殊能力發揮了關鍵作用。
22日，正在俄羅斯訪問的美國國防部長蓋茨表示，美軍將在未來幾天降低攻擊強度。但與此同時，美軍仍在加緊針對利比亞的軍事部署。據美國國防部消息，美國海軍“巴丹”號兩棲戰斗群將於23日從諾福克軍港起航，前往地中海，參與針對利比亞的國際軍事行動。據悉，該戰斗群由“巴丹”號兩棲攻擊艦、“梅薩·佛德”號兩棲船塢登陸艦以及“惠德貝島”號海灘登陸艦組成，並搭載海軍陸戰隊兩棲遠征分隊、戰術導航控制部隊以及醫療和直升機部隊。據介紹，該戰斗群具備兩棲登陸作戰、戰區安全合作、人道主義援助等多重能力。另據美國媒體報道，包括核動力航母“企業”號在內的多艘美軍艦艇，也將投入針對利比亞的作戰。有媒體評論認為，盡管奧巴馬多次表示支持在利比亞設立禁飛區，但不會派遣地面部隊，然而，美國向地中海增派包括兩棲攻擊艦在內的軍事力量，還是不免讓人懷疑美國醉翁之意不在酒。
美國要想“交權”不易
奧巴馬22日在其拉美之行的最后一站薩爾瓦多接受媒體提問時重申，美國將在未來幾天移交關於確保利比亞禁飛區的軍事指揮權。陪同奧巴馬出訪的總統國家安全事務副助理本·羅德說，奧巴馬當天早些時候同英國首相卡梅倫和法國總統薩科齊分別進行了電話交談，希望盡早解決各方在多國部隊指揮權歸屬問題上的嚴重分歧。
隨著對利比亞空襲打擊的持續，聯軍內部關於指揮權歸屬的爭論日趨表面化。北約似乎是美國比較中意的選擇，但法國和土耳其等國明確表示反對。意大利威脅，除非北約接收領導權，否則將拒絕向多國部隊提供機場。法國總統薩科齊稱，以北約名義進行“禁飛區”執法，很容易被反西方的阿拉伯國家和民眾貼上“十字軍入侵”的標簽，這種擔憂得到了美英等國的認可。土耳其作為聯系西方和阿拉伯世界的紐帶，雖然支持多國部隊針對利比亞的行動，但反對以北約牽頭。而據美國媒體援引不願透露姓名的美歐官員的話稱，多國聯盟內部對於法國總統薩科齊搶盡風頭普遍感到不滿。3月19日，當美歐各國在巴黎商討對利比亞動武的同時，法國戰機已經飛臨利比亞上空，薩科齊當仁不讓地成為打響第一槍的那個人。
此外，阿拉伯國家的立場搖擺也是讓美歐頗感頭疼的問題。空襲開始不久，阿盟對軍事行動的態度由最初的積極支持逆轉為有所保留。而截至目前，阿拉伯國家中僅有卡塔爾同意派戰機參與行動，但最快也要等到本周末才能到位。其他阿拉伯國家普遍持觀望態度。據美國媒體報道，奧巴馬政府正加緊勸說阿盟國家堅定立場。鑒於這種復雜局面，法國外交部長朱佩提出建立一個由多國外長組成的“政治指導委員會”負責協調利比亞禁飛區行動，以便把廣泛的政治領導和北約的軍事資源與能力結合起來。但這種鬆散的機制能否得到各方認可還是個未知數。盡管奧巴馬一直對“交權”表示樂觀，但多國內部眾口難調的現狀，似乎預示著美國暫時還難以脫身。
可能不得不面對持久戰
利比亞領導人卡扎菲在3月20日公開宣稱：“我們已經做好了打持久戰的准備。”這種狀況雖然是奧巴馬政府和多國部隊不願意看到的，但卻是最有可能的一種結局。
奧巴馬強調，雖然美國的政策是希望迫使卡扎菲下台，但禁飛區空襲行動的目標卻並非是卡扎菲。美國中東問題專家亞瑟·赫曼指出，二戰后沒有哪個政權是僅靠空襲就垮台的，美軍的高爆炸彈當年沒能讓薩達姆屈服，現在同樣不會在卡扎菲身上奏效。上世紀90年代，以美國為首的北約用了兩年時間、飛行超過10萬架次才建立了禁飛區﹔而美軍在伊拉克上空的禁飛區持續了12年之久，才將薩達姆政權徹底摧垮，最終還是依靠了地面部隊。
以反對派有限的軍事實力和組織能力，即便有多國部隊強大的空中火力支援，也難以對卡扎菲政權構成致命威脅。指揮禁飛區行動的美軍司令卡特·哈姆坦言，不排除卡扎菲繼續掌控權力的可能性，盡管這不是一種理想的結局。凱托研究所分析師本杰明·弗裡德曼指出，口頭施壓和經濟制裁隻會讓利比亞局勢變得更糟。
顯然，美國如果堅持軍事介入僅限於禁飛區，就要准備接受利比亞長期僵持的內戰局面。而如果美軍最終派出地面部隊，則利比亞很可能成為下一個阿富汗。奧巴馬政府的模糊政策已經引起美國國內的嚴重擔憂，即使一些民主黨人和溫和的共和黨人，也擔心美軍陷入利比亞這個新的泥潭。參議院外委會共和黨首席成員盧格警告美國勿卷入中東地區連綿不絕的戰事。前海軍部長、民主黨參議員詹姆斯·韋布稱，奧巴馬政府必須明確告訴美國人民，這場軍事行動的終點在哪裡。前北約盟軍最高司令克拉克將軍則指出，軍事干預的一條基本原則就是速戰速決，從軍事角度看，目前在利比亞設立禁飛區的目標已經實現，但如何從政治層面定義軍事行動的成敗，是美國面臨的真正挑戰。
美國戰略與國際問題研究中心專家安東尼·柯德斯曼認為，隨著時間的推移，美國將不得不面對這樣一個事實——所謂禁飛區很可能是一個假命題。他說，當這個框架被証實是失敗的，多國部隊將毫無選擇地介入針對卡扎菲及其地面部隊的進攻。（本報華盛頓3月23日電 記者 鞠 輝 《 中國青年報 》（ 2011年03月24日 04 版））
http://world.people.com.cn/BIG5/1029/42359/14221311.html
如果你不認為利比亞是關於石油，讀這
北約正式接管對利比亞軍事行動指揮權
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