乾旱會在中國、美國和歐洲小麥產區持續：英國預報員說

乾旱會在中國、美國和歐洲小麥產區持續：英國預報員說
Drought to Persist in China, U.S. Europe Wheat Areas, U.K. Forecaster Says
By Luzi Ann Javier -
May 6, 2011 10:20 AM GMT+0800
Translation by Autumnson Blog

Drought conditions may persist in wheat-growing areas from China, the world’s largest grower and consumer, to the U.S. and Western Europe, hurting crops and lifting prices, British Weather Services said.
乾旱條件可能會持續，從世界上最大的生產國和消費國中國的小麥種植區，至美國和西歐，損害農作物和提升價格，英國天氣服務公司表示。
The La Nina event is likely to continue to block rain from moving into the wheat-growing regions in the U.S. and China through mid-May, while the North Atlantic Oscillation will curb significant rainfall in France, Germany and the U.K., preventing the replenishment of soil moisture, Jim Dale, a senior risk meteorologist at British Weather said.
拉尼娜事件很可能繼續在整個五月中旬，阻止雨水移入美國和中國的小麥種植地區，而北大西洋濤動將抑制在法國、德國和英國大量降雨，防止土壤水分加增，一位英國天氣預報的資深風險氣象學家吉姆戴爾稱。
Dry weather may curb grain output, further boosting world food prices that rose to near a record in April and adding to pressure on central banks from Beijing to Brasilia to increase interest rates. About 44 million people have been pushed into poverty since June by the “dangerous levels” of food prices, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said in February.
乾旱天氣可能會抑制糧食產量，進一步提高世界糧食價格，那已在四月上升到近紀錄水平，並增加壓力在從北京到巴西利亞的央行上以提高利率。大約有4,4oo萬人自6月由食品價格的“危險水平“已被推向貧窮線，世界銀行行長羅伯特佐利克在2月份表示。
“A lot of things are going in the wrong direction, with areas that don’t usually get rains getting more rainfall, while those areas where you’d expect rains, having drought,” said Dale, who correctly predicted last month that drier conditions will persist in China through this month. “Prices are going to go higher rather than lower.”
“很多東西往錯誤方向，通常不會經常下雨的區域得到越來越多降雨，而那些你期待下雨的地方有旱情，“戴爾說，他上個月正確地預測較乾燥的條件將在這個月在中國持續， “價格將繼續走高而不是低些。“
Corn in Chicago has almost doubled in the past year and on April 11 touched $7.8875, the highest price since June 2008. The July contract dropped 0.2 percent to $7.075 a bushel at 10:14 a.m. Singapore.

La Nina is the cooling of the Pacific Ocean which can cause flooding in Southeast Asia and dry conditions to corn and soybean areas in Argentina. The North Atlantic Oscillation is a shift in atmospheric pressure that can determine U.S. weather.

Output Curb
Dry weather may jeopardize farmers’ plans to boost global production and replenish stockpiles that have been drained after the worst drought in at least half a century in Russia and excessive rains in Canada and Australia slashed harvests of food-quality wheat.

The International Grains Council lowered last month its outlook on global wheat production in the 2011-2012 season by 1 million tons to 672 million metric tons, matching global demand, because of “less than ideal conditions for some crops” in the U.S., the European Union and China. Further losses to the crop may cause production to lag behind demand for a second straight year, draining inventories.

Dry weather threatens to curb output in growing regions in China after similar conditions caused the winter-wheat crop in the U.S., the largest shipper, to deteriorate, while England had the hottest April in at least 352 years.

‘Very Late’
“It’s getting very late now in the growing season,” Dale said in a phone interview from London, referring to the China wheat crop. “I still think there’s trouble on this one.”

Shandong, the second-biggest wheat grower, has received as much as 20 percent less rain this year compared with the average in past years, Cngrain.com said in a report yesterday. Some crops in the province’s southern regions have wilted or died because of a lack of water, it said. The website is a unit of the China Grain Reserves Corp., which manages state stockpiles.

In Jiangxi province, 253 millimeters (10 inches) of rain have fallen in the past four months, 53 percent less than the previous year, the Xinhua News Agency reported May 4. Rivers in Jiangxi are at their lowest levels on record because of drought, Xinhua reported April 28.

Rain Forecast
Still, China’s northern wheat-growing regions are forecast to receive rain in the next few days, which may help ease dryness affecting winter wheat, said researcher Xn121.com, which is a division of the China Meteorological Administration. Another round of rain may bring wetness to northern provinces beginning May 9, according to the website.

While there may be “bits of rain” that may fall in the wheat-growing regions, it won’t be enough to end the drought, Dale said. “We’re seeing another two weeks of dry weather with no real sign of a breakdown” in the pattern, he said.

The dry conditions persisting in Western Europe may spread across Russia, Dale said. Spring plantings of grains and other crops across Russia fell by about half this year, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in Moscow April 28.

Spring sowing covered 2.5 million hectares (6.2 million acres) as of April 25, Putin said. That compares with 5.1 million hectares in the year-earlier period, according to Agriculture Ministry data. The sowing is behind schedule because of a cold spring, Putin said, although he still expects a normal-sized crop to be planted.

British Weather Services is a London-based meteorological company that provides weather-related risk analysis to agriculture production, sports events and businesses.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-06/drought-to-persist-in-china-u-s-europe-wheat-areas-u-k-forecaster-says.html

廣東平遠旱情告急 受旱農田近2萬畝 民眾飲水困難

江西遭遇50年罕見春旱 重災區打50米深井方見水

世界糧食價格達到危險水平