世衛將宣布豬流感見頂 禽流感警告
WHO Set to Announce Swine Flu Has Peaked, Warns of Bird Flu
Tuesday, 23 February 2010 16:13
WHO Set to Announce Swine Flu Has Peaked
Katie Drummond Contributor
(Feb. 23) -- The World Health Organization is expected to announce that the worst of the swine flu pandemic is over.
（2月23日） - 世衛預計將宣布豬流感大流行最嚴重的已經結束。
But the WHO won't be proclaiming the end of the H1N1 pandemic entirely. Instead, a panel of experts meeting today will determine whether the global community has moved into "a post-peak period," where rates of illness start returning to more typical influenza levels.
但是，世衛將不會宣布 H1N1病毒流行完全結束，代之，一隊專家小組今天會面，將確定全球社會是否已進入“後高峰期”，其中患病率開始返回更典型的流感水平。
And the panel warns that this final stage could endure for months. The WHO is scheduled to announce the panel's decision Wednesday.
和小組警告，這個最後階段可能要忍受幾個月，世衛計劃週三公佈該小組的決定。
"There is no on and off switch for a pandemic, and it's not a single event," WHO spokesman Gregory Harti said at a news conference. "What we have to see is that the behavior of the H1N1 virus becomes like the behavior of other seasonal viruses."
As of now, the virus is still causing outbreaks in atypical flu seasons and affecting groups not usually at increased risk of seasonal influenza, like kids and teens. Seasonal influenza is usually predominantly seen in the elderly.
The WHO first announced that swine flu had reached pandemic status in June, when it raised the alert level on the illness to the maximum level of six on its warning scale.
Right now, the estimated global death toll is 16,000, with millions having been infected since the initial outbreak. In the United States, a study out of Pittsburgh extrapolated blood samples from 846 residents to estimate that 63 million Americans fell ill with the flu strain. More than 70 million have been vaccinated.
Even if the WHO panel determines that the virus has peaked, warnings will likely persist. Transmission rates can come in waves, and many experts are wary that we could experience more peaks and crests before the strain is finally contained.
"We are not at all out of the woods because the virus continues to circulate, but the chances of a very large additional wave are very hard to predict," Anne M. Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told The Washington Post.
The latest update from the CDC is, however, a promising one: Its data shows that swine flu activity is "relatively low" and isn't spreading out of control anywhere in the country.
But as H1N1 begins to wane in the public consciousness, new warnings of a hybrid combination between avian flu (H5N1) and regular human influenza are beginning to circulate. A study in this week's Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences determined that the combination has the potential to create "highly pathogenic viruses" easily transmitted between humans.
但H1N1病毒開始在公眾的意識消退，新警告有禽流感（H5N1）和普通人類流感之間的雜交組合開始流通。在本週國家科學院的會議錄的一項研究，確定那組合有可能創造“高致病性病毒，”容易地在人與人之間傳播。
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世衛保持世界在大流行的緊急 6級
WHO keeps world on pandemic emergency level 6
Wednesday, 24 February 2010 11:34
News - Highlighted News
WHO special pandemic flu advisor Dr Keiji Fukuda today said that there were no plans to lower the pandemic threat level from the current level 6.
世衛的流感特別顧問 福田博士今天表示，沒有計劃從目前的六級水平降低流行病的威脅程度。
Six is highest pandemic emergency level that allows for emergency drug use authorization and also for WHO to assume control of health and police services of 193 countries under the pretext of managing a pandemic threat.
WHO said it had followed the recommendation of an emergency committee headed by Dr John Mackenzie that met yesterday, Tuesday, on the request of General-Director Dr Margaret Chan.
Mackenzie, an Austrialian biosecurity scientist, also headed the emergency committee that declared a pandemic level emergency level 6 in June over the mild swine flu.
He has recently come under scrutiny for his financial links to pharmaceutical companies. The names of the other members of the WHO emergency committee are not known, making it impossible to ascertain what links they may have to pharmaceutical companies.
These have made huge profits from vaccine sales due to WHO's pandemic declaration.
The decision not to declare the pandemic is "post peak" will come as a surprise given that the latest update from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) reports that pandemic flu activity has passed its peak in most of Europe.
Only 6.7% of the 684 specimens testing positive for the influence virus, and most of those in eastern European countries such as Romania.
According to the ECDC update, only 1549 people in Europe have died from the swine flu virus, a fraction of the number of people who die each year from the seasonal flu.
http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/100219_EISN_Weekly_Influenza_Surveillance_
Overview.pdf
Fukuda has said that it is concerned about a possible mutation of the swine flu virus into a hybrid bird flu virus, and this is one reason for maintaining the pandemic emergency level.
Indeed, WHO-affiliated scientist Bruno Lina is working on bioengineering just such a lethal combination in an Inserm lab in Lyon, according to a report in Nature. However, the emergence of any new, hybrid virus will make the current vaccines useless.
The emergency committee headed by Mackenzie is to meet again in a few weeks to reassess its decision.
A financial meltdown in Europe, a false flag terrorist event, a cyberattack or a war against Iran could create the kind of turmoil in which WHO might hope to implement another vaccination campaign.
This is a report by Reuters:
UPDATE 1-WHO to assess whether H1N1 has peaked within weeks
Wed Feb 24, 2010 6:37am EST
By Jonathan Lynn
GENEVA, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Health experts will review the status of the H1N1 pandemic in a few weeks to decide whether it has peaked but it is already clear that it is less severe than previous outbreaks, the World Health Organisation said.
The WHO's emergency committee decided on Tuesday that it was premature to declare the pandemic, which was declared in June and was the first in more than 40 years, was past its worst.
The 15 members of the body that makes confidential recommendations to WHO Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan deliberated for two hours but decided there were too many uncertainties about how the pandemic was behaving, even if it appeared to be subsiding in North America and Europe.
Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the WHO's top influenza expert, told reporters on Wednesday that rising levels of infection in West Africa and the risk posed by the winter months in the southern hemisphere were the dominating concerns of the committee.
"We have some reason to be concerned about what may develop as half of the world goes into its winter months," Fukuda said.
He said the United Nations health agency had confirmed reports of rising infection in Senegal and Mauritania, and was checking to see whether the flu virus was spreading in other parts of West Africa.
Fukuda urged people and governments not to let their guard down even though the current swine flu outbreak has not been as harsh as pandemics that killed millions over the past century.
"This pandemic appears to be on the less severe side of the spectrum of pandemics that we have seen in the 20th century," he said.
OVER 16,000 CONFIRMED DEATHS
So far the WHO has confirmed 16,226 deaths attributable to the H1N1 pandemic virus, but the real death toll -- which will take a year or two to ascertain -- will be much higher, as many victims have so far not been diagnosed with the flu strain.
People should continue to seek vaccination against the pandemic, which is dangerous for young adults, especially those with chronic health conditions, and pregnant women, in contrast to seasonal strains where the elderly are vulnerable, he said.
Fukuda said over 300 million people have now been vaccinated against pandemic influenza, and the shots, which have an excellent safety record, have proved 70-75 percent effective.
The pandemic sparked a race to develop new vaccines by drug makers such as GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) and Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) but many people have not taken the vaccine as the outbreak has turned out to be fairly mild.
A decision by the WHO emergency committee that the pandemic has entered a "post-peak" phase will indicate to governments and health authorities that the virus, while still a global pandemic, is in a transition to a more normal state of affairs where it circulates as seasonal influenza.
That would enable authorities to revise their emergency health arrangements. (For WHO statement go to link.reuters.com/zeh62j ) (Additional reporting by Kate Kelland in London; Editing by Noah Barkin)
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科學家在生物工程一種致命的禽流感和季節性流感變種
Scientists bioengineer a lethal bird flu and seasonal flu mutation
Wednesday, 24 February 2010 12:02
http://www.theflucase.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2813%3Ascientists-bioengineer-a-lethal-bird-flu-and-seasonal-flu-mutation&catid=1%3Alatest-news&Itemid=64&lang=en
在小鼠的研究提出：禽流感和季節性流感病毒能結合
Research in mice suggests avian and seasonal flu virus could combine
Last Updated on Tuesday, 23 February
http://www.theflucase.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2810%3Aresearch-in-mice-suggests-avian-and-seasonal-flu-virus-could-combine&catid=1%3Alatest-news&Itemid=64&lang=en
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