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2010年1月6日星期三

必讀:俄羅斯成為最大超級能源輸出國 改變世界

這一份報導是來自我們講及聖羅馬帝國(或第四德意志)復辟時,文內所推介拿取免費刋物的小喇叭網站/月刋,背景和立場絕不簡單。
文內講及十日後當俄羅斯在新輸油管完成和新港口運作,第一批石油和天然氣運去香港後,很快就成為比沙地阿拉伯更強大的超級石油輸出國。而因為和歐洲關係轉差及和中國關係升温,世界形勢將大受影響而改變。
ps.當然烏克蘭流感亦快到了!

俄羅斯將如何戲劇性地改變世界
How Russia Is About to Dramatically Change the World

January 5, 2010 From theTrumpet.com

In a remote corner of the world, a port bristles with cranes, smokestacks, mammoth ships—and trouble for Europe.
在世界一個偏僻的角落,擺滿港口吊機,煙囪,龐大的船隻--和給歐洲的麻煩
Over the next few days, Russia will change the world. It has completed a new oil pipeline and port complex that sets Russia up to become a more powerful oil exporter than Saudi Arabia. The ramifications for Europe and Asia are profound: The shape of the global economy—and the global balance of power—will be altered forever.

December 28 was a big day of ceremony in Russia. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pushed a button that transformed global oil dynamics—especially for Asia and Europe. The button released thousands of barrels of Siberian crude into a waiting Russian supertanker and heralded the opening of Russia’s first modern Pacific-based oil export facilities.

The multibillion-dollar, state-of-the-art oil terminal was a “great New Year present for Russia,” Putin said during the inauguration. The strategic terminal, located in the city of Kozmino on the coast of the Sea of Japan, is one of the “biggest projects in contemporary Russia” he said, not only in “modern Russia, but the former Soviet Union too.”

Putin has every right to be enthusiastic about his new port. Kozmino will unlock a two-way gate through which Russia’s vast Siberian oilfields will gush into Asia’s energy-hungry economies—and Chinese, Korean and Japanese currency will flow into Russia.
普京絕對可以熱衷於他的新港口, Kozmino將會為雙程閘解鎖,透過此俄羅斯的廣闊西伯利亞油田,將湧入亞洲的餓能源經濟體-和中國,韓國和日本的貨幣將流入俄羅斯。
If just the seven ships currently waiting to berth are all filled during January, the port of Kozmino will instantly become Russia’s third-most important oil outlet.
如果只是目前七艘等候泊位的船隻,都在1月份填滿,Kozmino的港口便立即成為俄羅斯的第三最重要石油出口。
According to Reuters, the first oil transport loads on January 15. In a symbolic move highlighting Russia’s warming relationship with China, Hong Kong will receive the first shipment.

據路透社報導,第一個石油運輸上貨會是1月15日。在一個象徵性舉動,強調俄羅斯與中國的關係升溫,香港將收到第一批石油貨運。

After that, Kozmino’s importance will exponentially grow over the next year. Currently, all Siberian oil shipments into Kozmino are delivered by train—but that will soon change. Phase one of the East Siberian-Pacific Ocean Pipeline (espo) was also completed during December. Phase two will soon connect the Siberian fields directly to the new port. When phase two is finished in 2012, total exports could jump from the current rate of 250,000 barrels per day to over 1 million. Kozmino will transform into one of the largest oil centers in the world—capable of handling 16 percent of total Russian oil exports. It will be one of the most strategic geopolitical assets in Russia’s arsenal.

Russia pumped more than 10 million barrels of oil per day during November. With Saudi Arabian production falling, Russia is now the world’s largest oil exporter. Toss in Russia’s natural gas exports, and Russia is the biggest energy superpower in the world, by far. That does not even count Russia’s massive uranium resources and nuclear expertise.
俄羅斯在11月每天泵超過10萬桶石油,而沙特產量則下降,俄羅斯目前是世界上最大的石油出口國。在俄羅斯的天然氣出口突然抬起,俄羅斯遠遠是世界上最大的能源大國。這還沒有計算俄羅斯的大量鈾礦資源和核技術。
But here is why the new port in Kozmino could radically affect the future of both Asia and Europe. For over a century, Russia’s entire energy infrastructure has focused mainly on supplying Europe. That has now changed forever! 。
但這是為甚麼那在Kozmino的新港口,能夠急速地影響到亞洲和歐洲的未來。一個多世紀以來,俄羅斯的整個能源基礎設施主要集中在供應歐洲,這已經永遠改變了!


The first and now-complete phase of the espo pipeline, which connects Russia’s Siberian oil fields to China, is already destabilizing global oil dynamics and shifting them in Russia’s direction. “espo is what political strategists might call a ‘game-changer,’” changer,’” writes the Telegraph. “It means that Russia will be able to send its oil either east or west—so it can drive a harder bargain when selling crude to Europe” (emphasis mine throughout).

Previously, when Russia has had pricing disputes with Europe, Moscow had to play the embargo card with an obvious bluff. It had no other alternative outlet for its oil. Without the Europeans, its oil would sit in Samotlor and Tyanskoye, costing money instead of making it. But now Moscow can turn off the tap to Europe and still pump in the profits by opening the pipe wide to its energy-hungry Asian partners.

But Russia’s stranglehold on Europe is about to get even tighter—much tighter. By 2012, the espo pipeline will be twinned with a pipeline for natural gas exports so Russian gas supplies can also flow east instead of west if necessary.

This development is truly scary to Europeans.

Moscow has already demonstrated that it isn’t afraid to turn off Europe’s energy supplies when it feels it needs to. In the middle of winter 2006, Russia shut off gas supplies to Germany, and several other countries, in order to punish Ukraine. Since then, it has repeatedly used the same method to strong-arm its former Eastern European satellites back into accepting Russian dominance.

The message is clear: Russian oil and gas supplies are a weapon to be used—or not used—to freeze opponents into submission.
信息是明確的:俄羅斯的石油和天然氣供應是一待用武器,或不使用,凍結對手至屈服。
Europe, in a tenuous relationship with Russia to begin with, desperately needs to secure another source of energy. Only one other region in the world can supply the energy to warm and lubricate modern Europe’s homes and industries: the Middle East. Countries like Germany, which imports 90 percent of its oil, are now much more dependent on one of the most volatile regions of the world for power supplies.

It is inevitable that Berlin will seek to expand its ties with oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council members: the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and especially Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest petroleum producer. Europe has no choice but to become much more intimately involved with the affairs of the Middle East—a region from which 40 percent of its oil is currently derived.

It is therefore no surprise that Germany, the most dominant nation in Europe, has made sure it has troops on the ground surrounding this Middle Eastern “golden triangle” of energy production (Gulf Cooperation Council members plus Iran and Iraq). On the seas, the European Union’s naval presence is growing too. The European anti-piracy task force operates in both the Gulf of Oman and the Gulf of Aden. Forty percent of the world’s ocean-borne oil is shipped through the Gulf of Oman.

Europe is critically dependent on imported oil. And Germany knows it must have a strong presence in the world’s most oil-rich region if it is to secure its flow and the country’s future.
歐洲嚴重依賴石油進口,和德國知道它必須有一個強有力的存在,於世界上最石油資源豐富的地區,如果它要確保其流動和國家的前途。
The Bible predicts that a major military clash will soon occur in the Middle East—specifically between a European power, led by Germany, and radical Islam, led by Iran.
聖經預言一個重要的軍事衝突即將在中東出現,特別是歐洲以德國為首的權力,和伊朗領導的激進伊斯蘭教之間
Daniel 11:40-45 indicate that Iran will continue to push at this European power until it finally responds in “whirlwind,” blitzkrieg-type fashion. As we have explained for almost 20 years—and has been borne out repeatedly in real-world events—the “king of the south” spoken of in these verses is radical Islam under the leadership of Iran. And as Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has written, a big part of Iran’s push against Europe will involve oil.
但以理書11:40-45顯示,伊朗將繼續迫這歐洲權力,直至它最後以“旋風、”閃電式回應。正如我們已解釋將近20年,並以現實世界的事件反复證明,“南方國王”在這些經文中是指伊朗領導下的激進伊斯蘭教,正如小號總編輯Flurry寫過,,伊朗對歐洲的逼迫一大成份將包括石油。
The Middle East is a powder keg that could explode at any time. Syria dominates Lebanon and is stirring up trouble there. Iran is about to create a nuclear weapon and has said it wants to wipe Israel off the map. It is test firing missiles that can strike European capitals. Israel knows that the window to prevent Iran from getting the bomb is closing. Hamas is preparing to violently take East Jerusalem as a Palestinian capital. Israel is about to release 1,000 terrorists back onto the streets in return for one captured Israeli soldier.

And to top it off, the world is in the midst of its worst depression since the 1930s. Oil prices remain above $70 per barrel, and the International Energy Agency has indicated that world oil production will now peak in 2020—10 years sooner than prior estimates. Some analysts think the world has already reached peak oil production.
世界正在自20世紀30年代以來最嚴重的蕭條之中,原油價格仍在每桶70美元之上,而國際能源機構表示,世界石油生產將在2020年見高峰期-十年早於原先估計。一些分析人士認為,世界石油生產已經到達咗巔峰。
In this climate of global instability, Russia’s recent moves on the world’s oil stage will be amplified in dramatic fashion. By unlocking Siberia’s energy reserves, Russia is simultaneously binding Asia together and lighting a fire under Europe. Watch for the development of an Asian alliance between Russia, China and Japan. And watch for Europe’s next moves toward the Middle East. •
在全球環境不穩定下,俄羅斯最近在世界石油舞台的舉動,將會被戲劇性地擴大。通過開放西伯利亞的能源儲備,俄羅斯同時和亞洲一起綑綁,並在歐洲下面點火。注視一個由俄羅斯,中國和日本的亞洲聯盟在發展,並觀看歐洲的下一步對中東的行動。
http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=6872.5382.0.0
簡訊:俄羅斯石油公司利潤下跌
更新時間 2010年 2月 1日, 格林尼治標準時間14:28
世界上最大的石油天然氣公司,俄羅斯國有天然氣公司宣佈它的利潤大幅下跌。
與2008年同期相比,該公司在2009年頭9個月的利潤下降三分之一,只有150億美元。
該公司說其利潤下降的原因主要是銷售額的減少,以及為中亞提供天然氣的成本上升。

http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/trad/world/2010/02/100201_brief_gazprom_profits_down.shtml

中俄原油管道開通首日輸油四萬噸

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