氣候變化預測'曲棍球棒'圖被誇大

'曲棍球棒'圖被誇大
'Hockey stick' graph was exaggerated
The 'hockey stick' that became emblematic of the threat posed by climate change exaggerated the rise in temperature because it was created using 'inappropriate' methods, according to the head of the Royal Statistical Society.
那'曲棍球棒'變成象徵性的威脅，由氣候變化誇大的氣溫上升所構成，因為它用了'不恰當'的方法，根據英國皇家統計學會會長。
By Louise Gray, Environment Correspondent
Published: 2:52PM BST 14 Apr 2010

Professor David Hand said that the research – led by US scientist Michael Mann – would have shown less dramatic results if more reliable techniques had been used to analyse the data.
戴維漢特教授說，研究 - 由美國科學家邁克爾曼為首的 - 將會展示出較少的戲劇性結果，如果已用了更多可靠的技術來分析數據。
Prof Hand was among a group of experts charged with investigating the "climategate" email scandal that engulfed the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) last year.
漢特教授是專家小組中的一個負責調查“氣候門”的電子郵件醜聞，那在去年吞沒了東英吉利大學的氣候研究中心（CRU）。
Sceptics claimed that the hacked messages showed scientists were manipulating data to support a theory of man-made global warming.
懷疑論者宣稱，被黑的訊息顯示科學家們，玩弄數據去支持人為全球變暖的理論。
However the review, led by Lord Oxburgh into the research carried out by the centre, found no evidence of ''deliberate scientific malpractice".
然而由奧克斯堡大人領導，審查中心進行的研究，發現沒有任何 ''故意科學作弊“的證據。
Lord Oxburgh said the scientists at the research unit arrived at their conclusions ''honestly and sensibly''.
奧克斯堡大人說，研究小組的科學家們得出的結論是''誠實和理智地 '' 。
But the reviewers found that the scientists could have used better statistical methods in analysing some of their data, although it was unlikely to have made much difference to their results.
但是審查者發現，科學家可以用更好的統計方法，去分析他們的一些數據，雖然它不似可能令到他們的結果有很大差異。
That was not the case with some previous climate change reports, where "inappropriate methods" had exaggerated the global warming phenomenon.
那不是之前的一些氣候變化報告的例子，其中“不恰當的方法”已誇大了全球變暖的現象。
Prof Hand singled out a 1998 paper by Prof Mann of Pennsylvania State University, a constant target for climate change sceptics, as an example of this.
漢特教授挑出1998年賓夕法尼亞州立大學曼恩教授的文件，他是氣候變化懷疑論者的固定目標，作為這的一個例子。
He said the graph, that showed global temperature records going back 1,000 years, was exaggerated - although any reproduction using improved techniques is likely to also show a sharp rise in global warming. He agreed the graph would be more like a field hockey stick than the ice hockey blade it was originally compared to.
但他說那圖，它顯示追溯到1000年的全球氣溫記錄，被誇大了 - 雖然任何使用改進技術的複製品亦很可能，顯示出全球變暖急劇上升。他同意圖表會更似是一枝曲棍球棒，多過是它最初相比的冰上曲棍球刀鋒。
"The particular technique they used exaggerated the size of the blade at the end of the hockey stick. Had they used an appropriate technique the size of the blade of the hockey stick would have been smaller," he said. "The change in temperature is not as great over the 20th century compared to the past as suggested by the Mann paper."
“他們使用的特殊技術誇大了曲棍球棒末端的刀鋒面積。如果他們使用適當的技術，曲棍球棒刀片的大小將已是較小，”他說。 “氣溫的變化不會是大如20世紀上的，相比過去如曼恩文件上所建議的。”
The "hockey stick" was used to warn the world of the threat of global warming by numerous individuals and organisations, including Al Gore in his oscar-winning film an Inconvenient Truth and UN body the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
“曲棍球棒”是被許多個人和組織用來警告世界，有關全球變暖的威脅，包括戈爾在他的奧斯卡獲獎影片絕望真相，和聯合國機構跨政府氣候變化專門委員會。
But sceptics immediately pounced on the graph and whole books have been written questioning its key finding.

The graph used data from hundreds of studies of past temperatures using tree rings, lake sediment, and glacier ice cores and then merged these with more reliable recent temperature records.

Prof Hand said many of the reproductions of the graph do not make clear when these different sets of data are used.

"It is only misleading in the sense they merged two different things," he said.

Prof Hand praised the blogger Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit for uncovering the fact that inappropriate methods were used which could produce misleading results.

"The Mann 1998 hockey stick paper used a particular technique that exaggerated the hockey stick effect," he said.

Prof Mann, who is Professor of Earth System Science at the Pennsylvania State University, said the statistics used in his graph were correct.

"I would note that our '98 article was reviewed by the US National Academy of Sciences, the highest scientific authority in the United States, and given a clean bill of health," he said. "In fact, the statistician on the panel, Peter Bloomfield, a member of the Royal Statistical Society, came to the opposite conclusion of Prof Hand."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7589897/Hockey-stick-graph-was-exaggerated.html