氣候科學家撤回雜誌宣稱海平線上升

氣候科學家撤回雜誌宣稱海平線上升
Climate scientists withdraw journal claims of rising sea levels
Study claimed in 2009 that sea levels would rise by up to 82cm by the end of century – but the report's author now says true estimate is still unknown/Reuters
在2009年的研究聲稱，海平線在世紀末的時候將上升多達 82厘 - 但該報告的作者現在卻說，真正的估計事實仍是未知之數/路透

• Read the full story of the hacked climate emails
David Adam
guardian.co.uk,
Sunday 21 February 2010 18.00 GMT

The Maldives is likely to become submerged if the current pace of climate change continues to raise sea levels. Photograph: Reinhard Krause/Reuters
馬爾代夫有可能被淹沒，如果按照目前氣候變化的速度繼續提高海平面。照片：萊因哈德克勞斯 /路透

Scientists have been forced to withdraw a study on projected sea level rise due to global warming after finding mistakes that undermined the findings.
科學家們被迫撤回一項研究，有關全球變暖引致的海平面上升預測，在發覺錯誤破壞了發現後。
The study, published in 2009 in Nature Geoscience, one of the top journals in its field, confirmed the conclusions of the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It used data over the last 22,000 years to predict that sea level would rise by between 7cm and 82cm by the end of the century.
這項研究在2009年自然地球發表，其中一份在這領域的頂級期刊，證實結論有關2007年從跨政府氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）的報告。它使用過去 2.2萬年的數據去預測，海平面在世紀末將上升7厘米至82厘米。
At the time, Mark Siddall, from the Earth Sciences Department at the University of Bristol, said the study "strengthens the confidence with which one may interpret the IPCC results". The IPCC said that sea level would probably rise by 18cm-59cm by 2100, though stressed this was based on incomplete information about ice sheet melting and that the true rise could be higher.

Many scientists criticised the IPCC approach as too conservative, and several papers since have suggested that sea level could rise more. Martin Vermeer of the Helsinki University of Technology, Finland and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany published a study in December that projected a rise of 0.75m to 1.9m by 2100.
很多科學家批評IPCC的做法過於保守，和自此有幾份文件提出海平面將上升更多。赫爾辛基理工大學的馬丁維米爾....等在12月份發表一項研究，預計在2100年上升0.75米至1.90米。
Siddall said that he did not know whether the retracted paper's estimate of sea level rise was an overestimate or an underestimate.
西多爾說他不知道，撤回的報告的海平面上升估計是否一個高估抑或低估。
Announcing the formal retraction of the paper from the journal, Siddall said: "It's one of those things that happens. People make mistakes and mistakes happen in science." He said there were two separate technical mistakes in the paper, which were pointed out by other scientists after it was published. A formal retraction was required, rather than a correction, because the errors undermined the study's conclusion.
宣布正式從該雜誌撤回文件，西多爾說：“它是那些會發生的事情的其中一件。人會犯錯誤和錯誤在科學發生。”他說在文件中有兩個獨立的技術性錯誤，在發表後被其他科學家指出，一項正式的撤回被要求，而不是改正，因為錯誤破壞了研究的結論。
"Retraction is a regular part of the publication process," he said. "Science is a complicated game and there are set procedures in place that act as checks and balances."

Nature Publishing Group, which publishes Nature Geoscience, said this was the first paper retracted from the journal since it was launched in 2007.

The paper – entitled "Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change" – used fossil coral data and temperature records derived from ice-core measurements to reconstruct how sea level has fluctuated with temperature since the peak of the last ice age, and to project how it would rise with warming over the next few decades.

In a statement the authors of the paper said: "Since publication of our paper we have become aware of two mistakes which impact the detailed estimation of future sea level rise. This means that we can no longer draw firm conclusions regarding 21st century sea level rise from this study without further work.

"One mistake was a miscalculation; the other was not to allow fully for temperature change over the past 2,000 years. Because of these issues we have retracted the paper and will now invest in the further work needed to correct these mistakes."
“一項錯誤是計算錯誤，另一項是在過去兩千多年不允許全面的溫度變化；由於這些問題我們已經撤回了文件，現在將投入進一步的需要工作去糾正這些錯誤。”
In the Nature Geoscience retraction, in which Siddall and his colleagues explain their errors, Vermeer and Rahmstorf are thanked for "bringing these issues to our attention".
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/21/sea-level-geoscience-retract-siddall

海平門：海平面在過去50多年並沒有上升