英國五年內面臨'石油危機'

英國五年內面臨'石油危機' 布蘭森警告
Britain faces 'oil crunch' within five years, Richard Branson warns
An oil crunch more serious than the financial crisis threatens to strike Britain within five years, Sir Richard Branson and other business leaders have warned.
比金融危機更為嚴重的石油危機5年之內威脅打擊英國 ，理查德布蘭森爵士和其他商界領袖警告。
Published: 9:00AM GMT 10 Feb 2010

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Consumers face a spike in costs for heating, transport, food and other goods, according to the report entitled ''The Oil Crunch - a wake up call for the UK economy''.
消費者面對飆升的成本，供暖，交通，食品和其它物品，根據報告題為 ''石油危機 - 一個叫醒英國經濟的電 話''。
It said the challenges facing the UK would exceed those presented by the financial crisis and said the poorest in society were most vulnerable to potentially significant increases.
它說英國面臨的挑戰，將超過那些由金融危機引起的，並表示在社會中最貧困的，是最容易受到潛在的顯著增加所影響。
The report said Government must acknowledge the risks to the economy and to produce contingency plans for transport, retail, agriculture and alternative power.
報告說，政府必須承認對經濟的風險，和準備好應急預案在運輸、零售、農業和副電力方面。
'Unless we do so, we face a situation during the term of the next government where fuel price unrest could lead to shortages in consumer products and the UK's energy security will be significantly compromised,'' it said.

The report was compiled by the Industry Taskforce for Peak Oil and Energy Security, a group of private British companies whose members include Sir Richard, Brian Souter, chief executive of Stagecoach, Scottish & Southern Energy boss Ian Marchant and Philip Dilley, chairman of consultancy firm Arup.

Virgin Group founder Sir Richard - whose airline and rail businesses are sensitive to volatility in the cost of crude - said businesses and Government should work together to prepare the economy.

''UK competitiveness will be hampered unless we can develop viable, affordable and secure long term sources of alternative energy,'' he said.

While the report did not address climate change directly, it stressed ''massive areas of overlap'' between the issues of depleted resources and pollution.

It said transportation was particularly vulnerable to rising oil prices, with businesses from supermarkets to manufacturers reliant on delivery networks.

The group said alternative methods of powering vehicles - for example electrification of the railways - should be explored and infrastructure developed.

It recommended removing the current £9 billion tax break on fuel for domestic airlines and using the money for public transport investment, while also encouraging a shift away from car travel.

''The UK's freight network, cars and public transport systems are almost entirely dependent on oil,'' Mr Souter said.

''The twin threats of the oil crunch and climate change make that unsustainable.''

Mr Marchant warned economic growth ''will be endangered'' as price rises hike the cost of raw materials and deplete consumers' spending power.

''There is the danger of creating a social recession as the poorest households get hit the hardest by higher prices,'' the Scottish & Southern Energy boss said.

Government was also urged to plan for food price hikes, as agriculture relies on oil-related products like fertilisers.

The report comes amid general fears about future energy security and costs in the UK.

Energy watchdog Ofgem has warned electricity and gas may become unaffordable for an increasing number of households unless drastic action is taken to secure power supplies.

Oil prices have been particularly volatile in recent years, spiking at $147 a barrel in July 2008 before plummeting to $32 a barrel that December amid the financial crisis and onset of the economic downturn.
石油價格最近幾年一直在特別波動，每桶於2008年7月在147美元見頂，其後在金融危機爆發和經濟衰退中，於12月暴跌到每桶32美元，。
It climbed again to around $70 to $80 late last year and has stayed relatively static as many world economies remain under pressure.
它在去年年底再次攀升到圍繞70美元至80美元，和已逗留得相對靜態，而許多世界經濟繼續承受壓力。
Global economic woes have pushed the ''oil crunch'' point - when global demand will use up stocks faster than they can be replaced by new production - back by two years and given governments and firms more time to work out how to act.

But oil prices are still predicted to climb to a sustained level above $100 a barrel within the next five years.
但石油價格仍然預計持續攀升，至在未來 5年在每桶100美元以上的可維持水平，。
And the UK is seen to be particularly vulnerable to price fluctuations as it increasingly relies on energy imports.

Sudden supply shocks would ''quickly reverberate throughout the UK's supply chain'', according to Dr Robert Falkner of the London School of Economics, who compiled part of the report.

''Air travel and road haulage are now the key reasons behind our dangerous addiction to oil,'' he said.

The widely expected de-coupling of gas and oil prices should ease the pressure on household energy costs.

''Nevertheless, a rise in living costs - in the form of higher travel and transport costs and consumer prices - is firmly on the agenda,'' he added.

2010 Peak Oil Report - The Peak Oil Group

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/oilprices/7203172/Britain-faces-oil-crunch-within-five-years-Richard-Branson-warns.html