美金綠背的崩潰？

美金綠背的崩潰？
Collapse of the Greenback?
美元將會有一個“阿拉伯石油震蕩”？
Will the Dollar get an “Arab Oil Shock”?

Ever since Washington tore up the Bretton Woods treaty in August 1971 and went onto a “dollar paper reserve system” instead of a dollar backed by gold, the United States, as the world’s most powerful military power, has been able to dictate financial terms to the world. Nations like Japan and later China, dependent on US export markets, would dutifully invest their trade surplus dollars into US Government debt, in effect financing wars such as Iraq or Afghanistan they opposed. They saw no choice. Arab oil producing countries, under US military pressure, were forced to sell oil only in dollars, a direct prop to the dollar when the US economy was in terminal decline. That may be rapidly about to come to an end.

According to a leaked report from Arab Gulf oil producers, there have been a series of secret meetings in recent months between the major Arab oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, and reportedly also Russia, together with the leading oil consumer countries including two of the three largest oil import countries―China and Japan.
據一份從阿拉伯海灣石油生產國洩漏的報告，最近幾個月在主要阿拉伯石油生產國--包括沙特阿拉伯--之間有一系列秘密會議，和報告亦包括俄羅斯和領頭石油消費國中，三個最大的石油進口國中的兩個：中國和日本。
Their project is to quietly create the basis to end a 65-year long “iron rule” of selling oil only in US dollars. As I document in my book, Century of War, following the 400% oil price shock of 1973, which was deliberately blamed by US media on “greedy Arab Sheikhs,” the US Treasury made a secret trip to Riyadh to tell the Saudis in blunt terms that if they wanted US military defense against potential Israeli attack, that OPEC must privately agree never to sell oil in currencies other than the US dollar. That “petrodollar” system allowed the US to run staggering trade deficits and remain the world reserve currency, the heart of its ability to dominate and control world financial markets until the crisis of the sub-prime real estate securitization in August 2007.
他們的計劃是悄悄地創造一個基礎，結束65年來只用美元出售石油的“鐵律”。正如我在我的書"'戰爭的世紀"中提出證明，跟隨在1973年400％的石油價格衝擊，那是被美國媒體蓄意指責為“貪婪的阿拉伯酋長，”美國財政部曾秘密前往利雅得，以生硬的條件告訴沙特，如果他們希望使用美式軍事防禦針對潛在的以色列攻擊，那麼OPEC必須私下同意決不以美元以外的其他貨幣出售石油。這一“石油美元”制度允許美國以驚人的貿易赤字统治，依然是世界儲備貨幣，其核心能力支配和控制世界金融市場，直至2007年8月出現次按房地產證券化的危機。
The participants in the project reportedly envision using a basket of currencies reflecting producer-consumer trade relations, one backed by gold as a solid backbone. It would not initially be a new currency as some have surmised, but rather an arrangement that would eliminate the risks of pricing oil sales in fluctuating and likely depreciating dollars.
該計劃的與會者報告想利用一籃子貨幣，反映生產者與消費者的貿易關係，其中以黃金作為支持的堅固脊骨。最初它不會如一些人猜測是一種新貨幣，而是一種安排將可消除石油銷售定價在波動和可能是美元貶值的風險。
Iran announced recently that in the future it would sell its oil for euros not dollars. According to these reports, the basket of currencies would include a mix of yen, euros, Chinese yuan, gold. Brazil would reportedly join as both a producer and consumer country.
伊朗最近宣布過，將來她出售的石油將收取歐元而不是美元。根據這些報告，一籃子貨幣將包括日元，歐元，人民幣，黃金的混合。報導巴西將加入是以一個生產又是消費國的身份。
The secret plan was first reported by respected Middle East correspondent, Robert Fisk, in the UK Independent. Fisk claims to have confirmed existence of the plan from Arab as well as Hong Kong Chinese sources. I have confirmed from very senior and well-informed Gulf sources that the talks are in fact real. The oil producing countries have been fed up for years about having to price their oil in dollars or face US reprisals. They are steadily losing as the dollar depreciates against other currencies and against gold. Following the US declaration of the War on Terror by the Bush Administration after September 11, 2001 most leading Arab oil producing countries privately saw US policy as being aggressively aimed at them. The unjustifiable US invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003 merely confirmed that as well as subsequent US threats against Iran.

Initially various governments involved in the leaked plan have publicly denied vehemently such a plan. That in no way invalidates that such moves are afoot. They are well aware that the United States as a wounded tiger can be far more dangerous. The leak of the plans in the world media, whether every detail reported by Fisk is true or not, feeds what is an inevitable decline in the dollar as a reliable reserve currency for world commerce.

What is not clear is what the potential response of Germany and France, the two pivot powers within the EU will be. If they decide to cast their lot with oil producing and consuming countries, they open their doors to vast new trade and investment potentials from the countries of Eurasia. If they cringe from that and decide to remain with the British Pound and US dollar, they will inevitably sink along as the dollar Titanic sinks.
目前尚不清楚兩個歐盟權力樞紐德國和法國有什麼潛在反應，如果他們決定斜放注碼在石油生產和消費國，他們敞開大門給從歐亞大陸國家而來的巨大新貿易和投資潛能。但如果他們為那畏縮並決定留在英鎊和美元，它們將難以避免地與鐵達尼美元一齊下沉。
With that decline of the US dollar goes the lessening of the political power of the United States as sole economic and financial superpower. We face very turbulent waters ahead and gold not surprisingly is gaining in this uncertainty.

http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/1973_Oil_Shock/Greenback_Collapse/greenback_collapse.html