歐元區金融戰爭升級 評級機構以信用降級威脅法國和德國

歐元區金融戰爭升級 評級機構以信用降級威脅法國和德國
Rating agency threatens France and Germany with credit downgrade as financial battle over euozone escalates
Monday, 15 March 2010 11:16

穆迪的警告幫助美元
Moody's Warning Boosts Dollar

By NICHOLAS HASTINGS

LONDON—A warning by Moody's of the risk to the top credit ratings of the U.S., U.K., France and Germany depressed market sentiment Monday, boosting the dollar and yen as investors turned to safe havens.
倫敦 -穆迪的一個警告有關頂級信用評級國家美國、英國、法國和德國的風險，引致星期一市場氣氛低迷，因投資者轉向安全避難所而推動美元和日元。
The euro was under pressure despite reports at the weekend suggesting euro-zone finance ministers are on the verge of announcing a bailout package for Greece, should Athens find itself unable to meet its debt obligations.
歐元受到壓力，儘管在上週末報告提出歐元區的財長，在邊緣上宣布一項為希臘的救市計劃，如果雅典發現自己無法履行其償債義務。
The euro fell to $1.3714 from $1.3762 late Friday in New York, according to EBS. The single currency was also down at ¥124.37 from ¥124.57. The dollar rose to ¥90.66 from ¥90.50.

China also contributed to the negative mood in financial markets, with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao indicating that he has little intention of changing China's foreign exchange policy of keeping the yuan pegged to the dollar. He noted that international pressure on China to let the yuan appreciate is counterproductive.

The Chinese premier also said he doesn't consider the yuan overvalued and that its recent stability contributed to the recovery from the global crisis.

The U.S. in particular has been putting pressure on Beijing to let the Chinese currency rise. This would not only tighten monetary policy in China, it would make Chinese exports less competitive in the global market.

Although details of a Greek bailout plan remain sketchy, comments by euro-zone officials over the weekend suggest that intense negotiations could produce results later Monday—in the form of a backstop package to ensure Greece can continue servicing its debts.

In itself, such a package should provide some reassurance that a default won't take place. However, analysts are concerned that contingency plans aren't being made for other major euro-zone debtors such as Spain.

"Clearly the risk must be that loan guarantees for Greece simply precipitate an increased flow of money towards it and away from the euro zone's fourth-largest economy (Spain)," said Simon Derrick, a senior currency strategist with Bank of New York Mellon in London. "On the assumption that a Spanish debt crisis would prove a rather more serious issue for Germany than the one that has emerged in Greece, it therefore seems reasonable to suppose that were this to happen then a Spanish support package would emerge in short order," Mr. Derrick added.

The shift into safe havens was evident both in the slide in equity markets as well as in a general move to support the yen. The Japanese currency may also have been helped by a larger-than-expected improvement in Japanese consumer confidence.

Elsewhere, the pound fell to $1.5044 from $1.5188 after Rightmove reported that U.K. house prices rose by only 0.1% last month. This once again calls into question the sustainability of the recent bounce in the U.K. economy. The dollar was also up at 1.0604 Swiss francs from 1.0591 francs.

Write to Nicholas Hastings at nick.hastings@dowjones.com
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歐洲央行總裁警告評級機構 對改變希臘信用評級會引發債務的惡性循環
European bank president warns rating firms against triggering debt downward spiral by changing Greek credit rating
Monday, 15 March 2010 11:19

特里謝說評級公司會尊重'勇敢的'希臘計劃
Trichet Says Rating Firms Will Respect ‘Courageous’ Greece Plan

March 13, 2010, 12:32 AM EST

By Simon Kennedy and Joshua Zumbrun

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Greece’s plan to cut the euro-area’s largest budget deficit will win the support of investors and credit-rating companies.

“At this stage my working assumption is the Greek government decision will be convincing,” Trichet said in an interview yesterday with Bloomberg Radio before delivering a speech at Stanford University, near Palo Alto, California.

Greece’s fiscal crisis could be exacerbated at the end of this year when the ECB is due to revert to lending rules that were loosened during the global recession. If Moody’s Investors Service cuts Greece’s credit rating to a level comparable to the other major ratings companies, the nation’s government bonds would no longer be eligible as collateral at the central bank, making it more difficult for the country to borrow.

While Trichet said the ECB will study its rules, he said “there is no case” for Greece to be judged more negatively in financial markets or by ratings companies. Bundesbank President Axel Weber said March 9 the bank could accept government bonds with lower credit ratings as collateral if a higher risk premium were applied.

“Certainly, we have to look at this particular issue,” Trichet said. “The Greek government has taken additional measures which I’d qualify as convincing and courageous.”

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou last week detailed 4.8 billion euros of additional deficit cuts in a bid to convince European allies and investors he could regain control of his budget. The government aims to reduce its shortfall below the EU’s 3 percent of GDP limit by 2012.

Reinstated Rules
The Frankfurt-based ECB now accepts bonds rated BBB- by at least one ratings company as collateral. Under rules to be reinstated on Jan. 1, A- is the minimum rating required.

Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s credit grade to BBB+ in December. Moody’s has said it may lower its A2 rating two steps to Baa1 if Greece only partially implements its deficit-cutting plans. That would render Greek bonds ineligible at the ECB.

“It’s not necessarily the only solution to have a level of rating at which we cut off the access to the central bank,” Weber, who sits on the ECB governing council, said this week. “We could take higher haircuts for lower ratings; we could have a more continuous collateral framework. I think that’s something that needs to be discussed, but at this juncture there is no problem.”

Cut Deficit
Like Trichet, Weber assumed Greece would deliver on its plan to cut its budget deficit this year by four percentage points from last year’s 12.7 percent of gross domestic product.

Germany’s 10-year government bonds reversed initial declines yesterday as people familiar with the matter said European Union finance ministers will discuss next week whether any Greek bailout should be funded by EU bonds guaranteed by euro region governments. The yield on Greece’s benchmark 10-year bond fell 10 basis points to 6.25 percent.

The central bank probably won’t change the way it operates while returning monetary policy toward the stance prior to the financial crisis, Trichet said in the speech at Stanford.

“We view the pre-crisis operational framework as a very natural reference point for our phasing-out process,” Trichet said. The ECB has “relatively little reason to change fundamentally what has served our monetary policy well, both in normal and crisis times.”

‘Delayed Exit’
“We are convinced that a delayed exit from extraordinary liquidity support would distort market behavior and misallocated credit,” he said. “We do not wish to breed dependency.”

The ECB on March 4 left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 1 percent and said the level remains “appropriate.” The ECB started pulling back stimulus in December, when it stopped offering 12-month loans. It plans to continue lending banks as much money as they need at its benchmark rate until at least Oct. 12.

The “speed and path of the phasing-out of non-standard measures will depend on developments in financial markets and the economy,” Trichet said. “The current pace of phasing-out is appropriate.”

--Editors: James Tyson, Brendan Murray

-0- Mar/13/2010 05:00 GMT

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net
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