評級機構的權力可能完結 因為歐洲央行考慮做自己的主權債券評級

評級機構的權力可能完結 因為歐洲央行考慮做自己的主權債券評級
Power of rating agencies could be ending as ECB considers doing own souvereign debt ratings
Wednesday, 03 March 2010 12:05
News - Highlighted News

The gigantic power of the big rating agencies may be coming to an end as the European Union finance ministers request the European Central Bank (ECB) to do souvereign debt ratings, Reuters reports.
大評級機構的巨大權力可能即將終結，因歐盟財長要求歐洲央行（ECB）做主權債務評級，路透社報導。
"The fate of Greece, and if you are going to be more dramatic, the fate of Europe, depends on the judgement of one rating agency. That is an unacceptable situation," said ECB member Ewald Nowotny.
“希臘的命運，如果你是更富戲劇性的，那麼歐洲的命運，取決於一間評級機構的判斷，那是一個無可接受的景況，”歐洲央行委員埃瓦爾德諾沃特尼說。
"The problem is that they are like a black box. A central bank can better judge the economic developments of a country than three people sitting in an office in New York."
“問題是，他們就似一個黑箱。一間中央銀行能更好地判斷一個國家的經濟發展，好過 3人坐在紐約的一間辦公室。”
"The agencies have been completely wrong in the case of Lehman. Who can be sure that they won't be wrong again," said another official, according to the Handelsbatt.
“那些機構以雷曼案件作例子已完全是錯誤的，誰可以肯定他們不會再錯一次，”另一位官員說，根據 Handelsbatt。
Though small, the role of the rating agencies in creating and maintaining the 1931 German banking crisis as well as the current "financial" crisis cannot be overestimated.
雖然小，評級機構的作用在創建和維持 在1931年時德國的銀行危機，及目前的“金融危機”，是不能低估。
In an exact repeat of what happened in 1931, a rating agency -- Moody -- gave the junk subprime mortgage loans a tripple A credit rating because of a computer "glitch" - and did not bother to correct the rating when it discovered the error.

In 1931, the "toxic" assets were industrial assets and also suddenly "discovered" to be worthless after banks loaded their books with them.

As a result of the credit rating error over the subprime loans, banks had a pretext to declare themselves bankrupt as soon as the "error" was found and the market to market rule was changed.

Banks did not declare themselves bankrupt, but instead received huge bailouts on the grounds they were too interlinked to be allowed to fail. These same banks appear to have helped withdraw trillions from the world's economy -- some say $ 74 trillion last spring through Asian exchanges -- so precipatating the economic crash in the first place.

Just by changing credit ratings, Moody and other agencies can help destroy the global economy, regional economies, countries, states or specific currencies or sectors on command for the profit of the banks and with behind the smokescreen of the controlled media.

UPDATE 1-ECB pressed to do sovereign ratings itself -report

5:14am EST

* Finance ministers want ECB to rate sovereign debt-source

* Would eliminate dependency from rating agencies

* ECB's Nowotny said central banks could do it better

(Adds details, background, reaction)

FRANKFURT, March 3 (Reuters) - European Union finance ministers are pushing the European Central Bank to develop its own rating system for euro zone countries, German business daily Handelsblatt reported on Wednesday, citing EU finance ministry sources.

The paper quoted one official saying the plan would free the euro zone from its dependency on international rating agencies such as Standard & Poors, Moody's and Fitch.

"The agencies have been completely wrong in the case of Lehman. Who can be sure that they won't be wrong again," said the source, described as being from the Ecofin group of finance ministers.

European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj said he had no comment at this stage on the Handelsblatt story.

The ECB also declined to comment on the report, a day after ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny criticised the power wielded by ratings agencies and said central banks could better judge a country's economic performance.

Greece's recent debt troubles have highlighted problems in the system under which the ECB accepts bonds as security for loans based on the judgment of major ratings agencies -- currently at least one agency must rate bonds BBB-, but the threshold is due to go back to A- at year end.

Fitch and S&P have downgraded Greece into 'B' territory and should Moody's follow suit, banks would no longer be able to exchange Greek government debt for cash in ECB refinancing operations from January 2011.

Nowotny said on Tuesday Europeans had never been able to agree on setting up a local alternative to the big ratings agencies, but it would be good to escape from dependence on their judgement.

"The fate of Greece, and if you are going to be more dramatic, the fate of Europe, depends on the judgement of one rating agency. That is an unacceptable situation," he said, adding that sanctions from ratings agencies were "bigger than God's."

"The problem is that they are like a black box. A central bank can better judge the economic developments of a country than three people sitting in an office in New York."

Nowotny heads the Austrian central bank, one of four national central banks who already prepare internal assessments of some debt submitted as collateral.

THREAT TO INDEPENDENCE?
Analysts said such a move would open the door to extreme political pressure on the ECB, although it would be very convenient to resolve a potential stand-off over Greek debt.

"The ECB has said it would not change the rules for one country, but it can change the rules for all countries at the same time," Nomura economist Laurent Bilke said.

"The flipside of this would be that governments are going to be very interested in the position of the ECB is. There is one element I am not very comfortable with, and that is that the ECB is an authority controlling what national authorities are doing and whether they comply with European rules."

"I think independence should work both directions -- it would not like the governments to assess what it does in terms of monetary policy and to deliver price stability."

The ECB already accepts ratings prepared by national central banks' in-house credit assessment systems in some circumstances where no external rating is available, for example for non-traded assets like packages of loans.

The German, French, Austrian and Spanish central banks run such systems, the ECB's collateral guidelines show. (Reporting by Marc Jones, Sakari Suoninen and Krista Hughes; editing by Patrick Graham)
http://www.theflucase.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2885%3Apower-of-rating-agencies-could-be-ending-as-ecb-considers-doing-own-souvereign-debt-ratings&catid=41%3Ahighlighted-news&Itemid=105&lang=en