Secret gold swap has spooked the market
It takes a lot to spook the solid old gold market. But when it emerged last week that one or more banks had lent 380 tonnes of gold to the Bank of International Settlements in return for foreign currencies, there was widespread surprise and confusion
它需要很多才可驚嚇堅硬的舊金市場，但是當上週出現，一間或多間的銀行已借出380噸黃金給國際清算銀行，以換取外國的貨幣，有廣泛的驚訝和困惑
By Garry White and Rowena Mason
Published: 6:10PM BST 11 Jul 2010
Secret gold swap has spooked the market Photo: EDDIE MULHOLLAND
秘密的黃金交換驚嚇市場 圖片：埃迪馬爾霍蘭
The news that a mystery bank has just pawned the family jewels gave traders a jolt – nervous about the sudden transfer of almost 20pc of the world's annual gold production and the possibility of a sell-off.
消息有一間神秘的銀行剛剛典當家族(羅富齊？？？)珠寶首飾，給交易商一次震動 - 緊張有關幾乎 20%的世界每年黃金產量的突然轉移，及可能出現的拋售。
In a tiny footnote in its annual report, the bank disclosed its unusually large holding of gold, compared with nothing the year before. The disclosure was a large factor in the correction of the gold price this week, which fell below $1,200 for the first time in more than a month.
在年度報告中的一個小小註腳，銀行披露它不尋常地持有大批黃金，比前一年什麼也沒有。披露是一個大因素令致黃金價格在本週調整，超過 1個月以來第一次下跌至1200美元以下。
Concerns hinged on whether the BIS could potentially sell on this vast cache of bullion in the event of a default, flooding the market with liquidity. It appears to have raised $14bn for whoever's been doing the swapping – small fry on the currency markets, but serious liquidity in the gold market.
Denominated in euros, gold has fallen 8pc since the beginning of the month and is now trading at a seven-week low of €937 per troy ounce.
The big gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) – having peaked at record inflows in May – have also been showing net outflows over the past few days.
Meanwhile, economists and gold market-watchers were determined to hunt down which bank is short of cash – curious about who is using their stash of precious metal for what looks suspiciously like a secret bailout.
At first it looked like the BIS was swapping gold with a troubled central bank. After all, the institution is the central bankers' bank and its purpose to conduct transactions with national monetary authorities.
Central banks in the troubled southern zone of Europe were considered the most likely perpetrators.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks in Greece, Spain and Portugal held 112.2, 281.6 and 382.5 tons of gold respectively in June – leading analysts to point fingers at Portugal, or a combination of the three.
But Edel Tully, an analyst from UBS, noted that eurozone central banks would be severely limited with what they could do with the influx of extra cash – unable to transfer it straight to governments or make use of the primary bond markets.
She then listed the only other potential monetary authorities with enough gold as the US, China, Switzerland, Japan, Russia, India and Taiwan – and the International Monetary Fund.
This led to musings that the counterparty was the IMF, making sense because the lender of last resort is historically prone to cash shortages and has been quietly selling off gold in the first half of the year.
Renowned gold expert Jim Sinclair adopted this explanation. The panic came when people mistook a lease for a swap, he argues. Far from being a big release of gold into the market, it is simply a commercial arrangement between the IMF and BIS with a favourable rate of interest paid for the foreign currency.
"Gold swaps are usually undertaken by monetary authorities," he writes on his industry blog, MineSet. "The gold is exchanged for foreign exchange deposits with an agreement that the transaction be unwound at a future time at an agreed price.
"The IMF will pay interest on the foreign exchange received. Historically swaps occur when entities like the IMF have a need for foreign exchange, but do not wish to sell the gold. In this case, gold is a leveraging device for needed currency to meet requirements.
"The many reports that characterise the large IMF gold swap as a sale of gold into the markets do not understand the difference between a swap and a lease."
However, the day after original reports about the swaps, BIS emailed a statement saying that the swaps had not been conducted with monetary authorities but purely with commercial banks.
This did nothing to quell the sense of mystery surrounding the deal or deals. It is almost inconceivable that a single commercial bank could have accumulated so much gold alone. And cynics have suggested that the whole affair still looks like a secretive European bailout that a single country wants to keep quiet.
In this case, one or more of the so-called bullion banks – which act as wholesale market-makers and include Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, HSBC, Barclays, UBS, Societe Generale, Mitsui and the Bank of Nova Scotia – would have agreed to act on behalf of a monetary authority.
This would add an extra layer of anonymity. "So the BIS swaps look like a tripartite transaction," writes Adrian Douglas of the Gold Anti-Trust Association. "The commercial bank or banks made a swap with a central bank or banks and then the commercial bank or banks made a swap with the BIS."
Analysts for Commerzbank note that in the meantime, "The price of gold is tending weaker at present."
Baltic Dry Index still falling
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity shipping costs, has fallen for the longest period in nine years, due to lower volumes of iron ore being shipped to China.
Surplus steel means manufacturers are relying on stockpiles, rather than shipping in iron ore from abroad.
The index of freight rates on international trade routes fell 38 points, or 2pc, to 1,902 points on Friday in its 31st straight decline.
Charter rates for all types of ships fell.
Buyers angry at 'excessive' cocoa speculation
European cocoa buyers are so concerned about potential speculation in the market that they have written to the London commodities exchange threatening to move their trade to America.
Talks between industry participants and Liffe, the London exchange operator, will take place this week, following concerns about the price spike in June.
Futures hit a 32-year high, amid lower production due to diseased crops in Africa and higher demand.
Those who signed the letter claim there has been excessive speculation by hedge funds and want greater transparency about who is buying what and how much.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/7884272/Secret-gold-swap-has-spooked-the-market.html
各國央行拋售黃金 或有不爲人知秘密？
2010年 07月 12日 14:25
中國窗
作者: Heidi N. Moore
各國央行正紛紛拋售黃金儲備以換取現金。他們是否瞭解一些不爲人知的秘密？
我們都看過那些廣告，它們高聲鼓動消費者賣掉手上的黃金換取現金。誰曾料想中央銀行會按這些廣告說的辦呢？
然而，這樣的事情確實發生了。國際清算銀行（Bank for International Settlements，BIS）從各國政府買入了349公噸黃金，爲他們籌集了140億美元資金。黃金的拋售幷不多見，現在却達到了罕見的歷史高點。（應該把這個消息告知俄羅斯，該國仍在瘋狂搶購黃金。）各國央行與國際清算銀行簽署掉期合約，計劃在晚些時候回購這些黃金，但如果他們不回購的話，國際清算銀行也可以賣出這部分黃金，届時黃金市場可能“金滿爲患”。
有趣的是，這公然違背了傳統的市場金牌法則——即把黃金搶購潮視爲“安全投資轉移”（"flight to safety"），因爲政府認爲黃金比貨幣更穩妥可靠。
德銀證券（Deutsche Bank Securities）分析師尤爾根•貝裏斯泰恩（Jorge Beristain）負責研究金屬市場和礦産公司，他看好黃金和金礦開采公司的走勢。本周他寫道：“我們認爲歐洲主權債務風險，以及流入黃金交易所交易基金（ETF）的大量資金，是推高2010年第二季度金價的主要因素。我們預計美元走弱將促成金價進一步上漲。”
正當主權債務迷霧深重之時，各國央行紛紛拋售黃金儲備以償還債務。問題的關鍵在于，面對現金需求，黃金是否光芒不再？
貝裏斯泰恩表示答案是否定的：“在我們的分析範圍內，黃金是最受市場青睞的金屬，雖然金價已經反彈到了一個歷史名義高點（nominal high），我們認爲這個價格幷不過分。我們的觀點是，在近期這種宏觀逆勢情况之下（歐洲主權債務危機、中國信貸緊縮以及美國經濟指標集體疲軟），直至2012年，“安全投資轉移”將促使金價不斷創出新高。”
到目前爲止，市場的表現與他們的分析是一致的。SPDR黃金信托交易基金（SPDR Gold Trust ETF）今年上漲了9%，金價達到1,194美元每盎司。貝裏斯泰恩預測，金價將在2011年漲到1，450美元，2012年達到1,600美元。同時目前他還看好紐蒙特礦業公司（Newmont Mining）和巴利克黃金公司（Barrick Gold），他認爲可以利用“黃金熱”的優勢，把這兩家公司作爲股票投資首選。儘管如此，具有諷刺意味的是，有一些黃金和其它金屬礦業公司，也和那些中央政府一樣，在大量儲存現金。
如果各國央行都在拋售黃金，對金價而言可能是壞消息，但更深一層來看，對全球經濟却可能是好消息。一方面，這表明各國央行確實在努力償還債務；另一方面，嚴重危機時期，黃金是公認的避風港——如果央行出售黃金，說明他們或許幷不像曾經那樣擔心再次出現導致市場凍結的危機。當然，他們也可能是顧不上那麽多了。
因此，金價的漲勢或許將持續到明年和後年，而近期看來，投資者真的需要擔憂的是推動金價走勢的根源：這些央行都在打什麽主意。
http://www.hkcd.com.hk/content/2010-07/12/content_2555072.htm
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