Cancun climate change summit: scientists call for rationing in developed world
Global warming is now such a serious threat to mankind that climate change experts are calling for Second World War-style rationing in rich countries to bring down carbon emissions.
全球變暖現在是這樣一個對人類的嚴重威脅，氣候變化專家在呼籲在富裕國家實行世二戰的配給，以降低二氧化碳排放量。
By Louise Gray,
Environment Correspondent
7:30AM GMT 29 Nov 2010
Translation by Autumnson Blog
'The Second World War and the concept of rationing is something we need to seriously consider if we are to address the scale of the problem we face' Photo: GETTY'第二次世界大戰和配給的概念是一些我們需要認真考慮的東西，如果我們要解決我們面臨的問題規模，' 圖片來源：GETTY
In a series of papers published by the Royal Society, physicists and chemists from some of world’s most respected scientific institutions, including Oxford University and the Met Office, agreed that current plans to tackle global warming are not enough.
在一系列由英國皇家學會發表的論文，來自世界上一些最受尊敬的科研機構的物理學家和化學家，包括牛津大學和英國氣象局，一致認為目前的計劃去應對全球氣候變暖是不足夠的。
Unless emissions are reduced dramatically in the next ten years the world is set to see temperatures rise by more than 4C (7.2F) by as early as the 2060s, causing floods, droughts and mass migration.
除非排放量大幅度減少，在未來十年，世界準會看到溫度上升超過 4C（7.2F），約早到2060年代，會造成水災、旱災和大規模遷移。
As the world meets in Cancun, Mexico for the latest round of United Nations talks on climate change, the influential academics called for much tougher measures to cut carbon emissions.
正當全世界在墨西哥坎昆作最新一輪的聯合國氣候變化會談，有影響力的學者呼籲採取更嚴厲的措施減少二氧化碳排放量。
In one paper Professor Kevin Anderson, Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said the only way to reduce global emissions enough, while allowing the poor nations to continue to grow, is to halt economic growth in the rich world over the next twenty years.
在一紙鴻文，廷德爾氣候變化研究中心主任凱文安德森教授說，唯一方法能足夠減少全球排放量的，同時允許貧窮國家繼續增長，是制止富裕國家在未來 20年的經濟增長。
This would mean a drastic change in lifestyles for many people in countries like Britain as everyone will have to buy less ‘carbon intensive’ goods and services such as long haul flights and fuel hungry cars.
這將意味著一個急劇變化在國家如英國的許多人的生活方式，因為大家都要減少購買'碳密集'的貨物和服務，例如長途飛行和為飢餓的汽車加燃料。
Prof Anderson admitted it “would not be easy” to persuade people to reduce their consumption of goods.
安德森教授承認它是“並不容易”去說服人們減少消費商品。
He said politicians should consider a rationing system similar to the one introduced during the last “time of crisis” in the 1930s and 40s.
他說政治家應該考慮配給制度，相似上一次20世紀 30年代和40年代“危機時間”引入的一個。
This could mean a limit on electricity so people are forced to turn the heating down, turn off the lights and replace old electrical goods like huge fridges with more efficient models. Food that has travelled from abroad may be limited and goods that require a lot of energy to manufacture.
這可能意味著用電限制，因此人們被迫把暖氣關去、關燈和更換舊電器像巨大的冰箱以更高效的模型。從國外來的食品可能受限制，及貨物需要大量能源生產的。
“The Second World War and the concept of rationing is something we need to seriously consider if we are to address the scale of the problem we face,” he said.
Prof Anderson insisted that halting growth in the rich world does not necessarily mean a recession or a worse lifestyle, it just means making adjustments in everyday life such as using public transport and wearing a sweater rather than turning on the heating.
“I am not saying we have to go back to living in caves,” he said. “Our emissions were a lot less ten years ago and we got by ok then.”
The last round of talks in Copenhagen last year ended in a weak political accord to keep temperature rise below the dangerous tipping point of 2C(3.6F).
This time 194 countries are meeting again to try and make the deal legally binding and agree targets on cutting emissions.
At the moment efforts are focused on trying to get countries to cut emissions by 50 per cent by 2050 relative to 1990 levels.
But Dr Myles Allen, of Oxford University’s Department of Physics, said this might not be enough. He said that if emissions do not come down quick enough even a slight change in temperature will be too rapid for ecosystems to keep up. Also by measuring emissions relative to a particular baseline, rather than putting a limit on the total amount that can ever be pumped into the atmosphere, there is a danger that the limit is exceeded.
“Peak warming is determined by the total amount of carbon dioxide we release into the atmosphere, not the rate we release it in any given year,’ he said. “Dangerous climate change, however, also depends on how fast the planet is warming up, not just how hot it gets, and the maximum rate of warming does depend on the maximum emission rate. It’s not just how much we emit, but how fast we do so.”
Other papers published on ‘4C and beyond’ in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A warned of rising sea levels, droughts in river basins and mass migrations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/copenhagen-climate-change-confe/8165769/Cancun-climate-change-summit-scientists-call-for-rationing-in-developed-world.html
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